14th January - Selection rationale

There are a couple of decent meetings tomorrow afternoon, at Kempton and Warwick – containing some attractive races…
I’ve managed to find 3 tips so far – and am eying up a potential fourth for tomorrow morning. Non of the tips could really be classed as rock solid. However, all of them have a chance – and hopefully a greater one than their odds suggest.
I am optimistic that all 3 (4) will at least give us a good run for our money…

Kempton 2:50

This is a massively competitive race and I could easily see any one of a dozen winning it.
What ever happens, it will certainly be a race to watch closely as I’m sure it will contain plenty of future winners.
The horse I want on side, is the Nicky Henderson trained ex French, Rajdhani Express. He made a really eye-catching British debut at Sandown in December when finishing fifth behind Ubi Ace. He didn’t run quite so well next time out in the Ladbroke at Ascot – but that run came only 2 weeks after his debut and was also on soft ground.
As a son of Presenting, you would expect Rajdhani Express to perform better on tomorrow’s quicker ground. He has also had the best part of a month to recover from his last race.
Furthermore, he has been dropped 2lb from the Ascot run – and if you look at his French form with the 141 rated Houblon Des Obeaux, that makes him look potentially well handicapped on a mark of 137.
As I said, dangers abound – but if Rajdhani Express can build on the promise he showed on his British debut, I reckon he could go very close.
Sam Waley Cohen is on board (his father owns the horse) and he owes us for Otage De Brion. Hopefully he and Rajdhani Express can go some way to paying back that debt !!

0.5pt win Rajdhani Express 22/1


Kempton 3:20

This is a slightly unusual race in so much as over half the field were either pulled up or fell, last time out ! In fact, the best last time out placing any of the field can offer, is a 4th. To say recent form is in short supply therefore, is something of an under-statement !!
Fine Parchment is the horse that I fancy in the race. He was hugely progressive last season, with his rating rising from 107 to 135. That progression seemed to have continued this season, when he finished second to Hectors Choice at Aintree.
His 2 subsequent runs have been a little disappointing but I think there were mitigating circumstances for both .
The first of them was in the Paddy Power gold cup where he actually managed to beat half the field despite being 6lb out of the handicap.
Next time out he was asked to lug 11st12lb around the Aintree fences in heavy ground. Maybe not too surprisingly, he was pulled up.
If he can return to the form of his debut run then he should go close tomorrow. Having to carry top weight is not ideal but the booking of Peter Carberry to take off 5lb will certainly help.

1pt win Fine Parchment 12/1


Warwick 3:40

The presences of Hey Big Spender means that almost half of the field are out of the handicap for this race.
I was half tempted to tip Hey Big Spender. As you should be aware, I’m a big fan of the horse: however, he is running off his highest ever rating tomorrow (156) over a trip he is unproven. If you add in a niggley concern about his jumping, then there were just too many question marks and I decided, somewhat reluctantly, pass him over. I might have a small saver on him, all the same…
For the tip, I have turned to the Alan King trained Blazing Bailey. King has won the last 2 runnings of this race and I think Blazing Bailey has every chance of providing him with a hatrick.
He was a top class staying hurdler, who got his act together over fences last season, when he won off marks of 133 and 146.
A few disappointing runs since his last victory have seen his mark slip back to 146 – but with conditions ideal for him tomorrow, I can see no reason why he won’t run a very big race.

1pt win Blazing Bailey 10/1