Ockey De Neulliac really caught my eye last time out when running at Wetherby on Boxing day.
In that race, he was settled in rear by his jockey and made relentless progress on the second circuit culminating in him jumping to the front over the second last.
However, he then appeared to tire quickly and could eventually only finish fifth. My feeling was that over a couple of furlongs less, he would have just about won…
Tomorrow he is running over 2furlongs less – though unfortunately it is over fences rather than hurdles. There are 2 issues with that: firstly Ockey De Neulliac is rated 5lb lower over hurdles (as so has to effectively carry 5lb more tomorrow) and secondly, he is not the best jumper of a fence that you will ever see…
However, he will be helped tomorrow, by the fact that he only has 5 rivals to beat (which should make jumping easier for him) - and non of them really look world beaters.
It is interesting to see that Ferdy Murphy has enlisted the services of a very inexperienced claimer for the ride, in John Winston. He’s only had a hand full of rides before – and just the one winner – though that was on Ockey De Neulliac over hurdles.
Even in this apprentice only race, he is able to claim 8lb, which should be very valuable in helping to offset his top weight.
I must admit that I do have some slight reservations about tipping a Ferdy horse the night before ! However, I do think the price is too big – and I suspect it would go whether I tipped it or not !
At the end of the day, he’s a horse in form, running in a 6 runner race, where non of his opponents look outstanding. At 9/1, I feel he has to be worth a small wager…
1pt win Ockey De Neulliac 9/1
Bit of money for ockey de neulliac... lets hope he does the business! Bit of on course support would boost my confidence. Good luck all
ReplyDeleteYou should know by now Ciaran that the money guarentees nothing...
ReplyDeleteI wouldn't be tipping him now at 9/2 - even with the NR - that price looks about right.
As with all of the tips, I reckon he's got a fair chance - though he's still more likely to lose than win !
Let's hope the law of averages works in our favour today, for a change...
Won on the bridle like a 1/4 shot despite not jumping the best, thank you ;)
ReplyDeleteRule 4 of 25p.... +6.75?
ReplyDeleteAs usual a great value tip Andrew. Thanks for posting.
ReplyDeleteKeep up the good work mate
Mark
Good spot, phew jumping was a bit scarey but nice priced winner all the same despite the R4.
ReplyDeleteKeep up the good work.
Kev
Well Done excellent result with it being 1st past the post and Yes a well backed winner in the end
ReplyDeleteGreat Blog keep up the great work