9th January - Selection rationale

I almost had to do a double take when I looked at tomorrow’s card at Taunton…
For a Monday in the depths of January, it is a very decent card.
In particular, the novice chase that will be run at 2:10, wouldn’t look out of place on a Saturday afternoon at one of the grade 1 courses.
Fair play to Taunton for putting it on – if they can, hopefully others will be able to follow suit…

Maybe not surprisingly, my first tip of the day is on the aforementioned novice chase…

Taunton 2:10
This is a cracking little race and I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if any of the 6 runners were to win.
It has a nice shape because there are 2 ‘sexy’ runners, in the form of Rangitoto and Master Fiddle. Either one could well be up to wining this – but both have yet to prove it on the racecourse and are priced plenty short enough, with both around the 2/1 mark…
Balzaccio and Time for Spring both look relatively exposed (and I mean relatively in the context of this race !), whilst you would have to be a little concerned about the jumping ability of Made in Time. That leaves us with the selection, Vino Griego…
He is a horse of enormous ability – and it looked last time as if he was finally going to come good over fences.
That was in a grade 1 chase at Ascot. He absolutely tanked through the race and looked sure to win when taking up the running 3 fences from home. However, he made a complete horlicks of the second last and was collared by The Minack.
In truth, there was no shame in that defeat – even though Vino Griego should have won – and the handicapper has been very generous in leaving him on the same mark.
There is no doubt that Vino Griego sets the form standard in this race – but I have to acknowledge that either of the 2 favourites have the potential to surpass that standard.
However, when you are talking about potential against proven form, and odds of 2/1 against odds of 6/1, there really can only ever be 1 value call ;)

1pt win Vino Greigo 13/2


Taunton 3:40
Close followers of the blog will doubtless be a little surprised to see me tipping Solitary Palm again tomorrow…
I tipped him the last time he ran and he ran no kind of race whatsoever. I said afterwards that it would be difficult to tip him again - and it was, but I have…!
In truth, I acknowledge that it is a decision I may live to regret – however, at 16/1 in an easier race, off a 2lb lower mark, I decided to chance my arm !
The main factor in me giving him a second chance, is the removal of the tongue tie that he wore last time out.
As I said, he ran no sort of race last time and I have a suspicion that the tongue tie was inconveniencing him rather than helping him.
I’m not really sure why it was applied last time: he had run a couple of cracking races on his 2 previous outings and if he can return to that level of form tomorrow, he looks sure to go close…
I am slightly troubled by the fact that Venetia Williams has an interesting looking unexposed sort in the race. He could easily be too good for his rivals. However, I can’t see too many more likely sorts, so provided Solitary Palm runs his race this time, I’ll be disappointed if he doesn’t go close.

0.5pt EW Solitary Palm 16/1