19th January - Selection rationale

I didn’t plan to be tipping on 3 consecutive mid-week days – but when the races are there to be tipped in, what can you do ?!?!

3 domestic NH meetings tomorrow and as was the case last Monday, Taunton steal the show with a tremendous card, featuring a couple of cracking races.
It really is good to see some quality races taking place midweek (outside Ireland, of course !) and it is the handicap chase which will be run at 3:50, that has been the focus of most of my attention….

I said last week, that the trainer whose horses I had tipped most, was Venetia Williams. Well, that is true – but only just…
I’ve tipped just as many Philip Hobbs trained horses – I’ve just not had as many points on them.
The big difference however, is that whilst Venetia hasn’t provided me with a winner, Mr Hobbs has provided me with 3 (from 8) – including 20/1 shot Roalco De Farges.
Of course, that is not a good reason to tip a horse – but it does give me a little more confidence when I find a horse I fancy that happens to be trained by him…

That is the case with Rougham, who is trained by Philip Hobbs.
He was a decent novice chaser last season, when he was victorious in a handicap chase at Ascot off a mark of 130.
He started this campaign with a really creditable run behind Roudoudou Ville at Sandown. He still had every chance in that race when he blundered at the last. The winner subsequently ran a cracker in the 2m5f chase at Cheltenham’s pre-christmas meeting, thereby franking the form.
Next time out, Rougham again made a significant jumping error – and this time it caused him to be pulled up.
His penultimate run behind Torpichan at Exeter was creditable – as was his last run at Wincanton (behind Consigliere). He travelled notably well in the Wincanton race – but the combination of soft ground and a 2m5f trip probably proved too much for him…
The ground should be quicker tomorrow and the trip is 2 furlongs less. Rougham has also been eased 3lb in the handicap, taking him to a mark of 132 – only 2lb higher than last years wining mark.
As you would expect in such a relatively valuable race, there are a number of dangers, headed by the novices Chariot Charger and Michael Flips.
However, I am optimistic that, provided Rougham doesn’t make any serious jumping mistakes, he will run a big race – hopefully one good enough to improve my record with Philip Hobbs trained runners even further !!

1.5pt win Rougham 10/1