12th January - Selection rationale

I guess non of you will be too surprised to see me tipping Pocket Aces tomorrow…
I’ve tipped him on both of his outings this year – and even tipped him a third time when he was scheduled to run at Lingfields abandoned meeting in mid December.
On the first occasion that I tipped him, he ran really well; and on the second occasion, he unshipped his rider after making a mistake, quite early in the race.
He was ridden by a 5lb claimer that day, but Leigton Aspell is back on board tomorrow.
It shouldn’t make a huge difference, but having an experienced jockey who knows the horse well, should help a little.
I’ve got to be honest and say I was hoping for greater than the 5/1 that is available this evening. If you look at his form figures, you wonder why anyone would want to back him at double that price ! However, punters are getting shrewder – and the form figures only tell part of the tale…
I won’t again go into why I think he is ready to win – but I will say that I’m optimistic that tomorrow’s race could be run to suit him. More accurately, I think it could be run so as not to suit the first and second favourites in the race.
Marodima and Morestead are both confirmed front runners – so clearly one of them is going to be disappointed tomorrow !
I strongly suspect it will be Morestead – as nothing can live with Marodima if he chooses to go for it ! However, if he is forced to go quicker than ideal, that won’t help his cause either.
In short, I’m hoping that the 2 of them will cut each other’s throats, enabling the well handicapped Pockets Aces to waltz past in the closing stages.
That’s the theory anyhow…!

1.5pt win Pocket Aces 5/1


I am trying to keep things short (or at least, quick, from my perspective !) but I can’t let tomorrow pass without mentioning the 3:15 race at Catterick.
Lucky Landing takes on Bishops Heir. Both have been recent tips – Lucky Landing a particularly significant one !
After his last race, there was some debate as to whether he simply didn’t get home over 2m4f at Towcester – or whether he has breathing difficulties. Well, I think we will get a definitive answer tomorrow !
He is dropped back in trip to 2miles and on a relatively sharp track. I can’t bring myself to tip him, because I don’t think that the trip is the issue. However, I may be forced to have a couple of quid on him, as a form of insurance, in case I am wrong !
I also can’t see any reason why Bishops Heir should improve for dropping back in trip, so hopefully the finish of the race will be fought out by Otto Quercos and Next to Nowehere !

Finally, I am monitoring another horse that will be running in one of the novice races tomorrow.
The race won’t be priced up until tomorrow morning, so I don’t currently know whether I will be interested in it as a tip. If I am, I will tweet it around 9:15, by which time, most of the bookmakers should have priced up the race….