21st January - Selection rationale (part 1)

I’m really glad I had a winning day today !
I looked at tomorrow’s declarations at lunchtime – and I knew almost immediately that it was going to be a day when I fancied ‘getting stuck in’ !
Bearing in mind that my conservatism cost us last weekend, I was keen not to do the same tomorrow. However, it is a lot easier to go for it with a few points behind you, as opposed to when you are hovering around the break even point.
Thanks then to Mark the Book, for making it easier for me to play tomorrow as I want to…

I’ve actually adopted a slightly different approach tomorrow, in so much as I’ve tipped multiple horses in a couple of races.
This is something that I’m keen to try out when the racing is very competitive.
If I can see 2 or 3 in a race, whom I think could win and their odds are all fair, I think it makes sense to ‘dutch’ them.
Obviously, this won’t see such spectacular wins (I’ll leave those for Chepstow, midweek ;) ) – but hopefully, it will see a steadier flow of wins.
I’ve also made sure that I have adjusted the staking so that the total stake on each race is where I think it should be. This means for example, that if we end up having 3 x 0.5pt win bets at 16/1, it should be roughly the same as a 1.5pt win bet at 5/1 in a less competitive race.
Hopefully this all makes sense – I know what I’m trying to do (which is the important thing !) and it feels right to me !!
Anyway, on to the first batch of tomorrow’s selections (the second half is likely to follow tomorrow morning)…


Haydock 2:20

I really hope that Haydock passes its inspection tomorrow morning.
They’ve had lots of rain this week – and more forecast for tomorrow. The going will be absolutely desperate – but that is good news form a betting perspective.
Only a handful of horses will go on the ground – which means that fields can be pruned to a manageable size, relatively quickly.
The 2 on my short list for this race tomorrow, are ‘old favourites’ Stow and Reindeer Dippin.
I’ve only tipped Stow once before – and he ran an absolute shocker that day ! However, he was backed as if defeat was out of the question (of all my tips, only Olofi has shortened more – and he was advised at a much bigger price).
That simply can’t have been his form – and I don’t think connections believe it was either.
Despite having the option of some very good rides elsewhere, Aiden Coleman comes to Haydock, to partner this horse – and Mon Mome. I guess the latter has a chance in the Peter Marsh – but it will be some feat if he can win on the prevailing going with the weight he has to carry.
Therefore, I suspect they strongly fancy Stow again…
Blinkers have been added for the first time – which makes a lot of sense – and he can run from a 3lb lower mark than last time (and just 3lb above his last winning mark).
He will love the conditions – and if the real Stow turns up tomorrow, I think he’ll win…
However, if the real Stow doesn’t turn up, I’m hoping Reindeer Dippin will run a big race as well. In truth, I have concerns over both the trip and the weight he has to carry – however, he remains well handicapped and he will handle the conditions better than most.
I’d be really annoyed if he won without me tipping him, so I figure he is worth a half point saver…

1pt win Stow 9/1
0.5pt win Reindeer Dippin 9/1


Haydock 3:30

This will be a war of attrition.
Personally, I can’t have any of the top weights, I think it will be a huge advantage to be carrying less than 11stone.
That leaves just 3 horses: The Sawyer, Bold Ransom and King Fontaine – and to me, one of those sticks out a mile…
King Fontaine was a really progressive horse last season, when he notched up a 4 timer. His last win was actually over this very course and distance – and off the same mark as tomorrow.
He was raised 15lb for that win – and has struggled since. However, there were clear signs last time out, that he is a horse coming back to form.
In the Rowland Meyrick chase at Wetherby’s Christmas meeting, he was going as well as anything, leaving the back straight before fading on the run to home.
That run suggested to me that he was a horse I would want to be on next time out – and the fact that the handicapper has chosen to drop him a massive 8lbs for it, is the icing on the cake !
My only real concern is whether he will appreciate the ground. His previous runs on heavy have not been great – and this fact alone has stopped me going crazy on him.
However, from a form, handicapping, trip and course perspective, I think he is a great bet – let’s hope the ground doesn’t prove to be his Achilles heal.

1.5pt win King Fontaine 11/1


Ascot 3:45

It might appear that I’ve gone crazy by tipping 3 in this, but there is method in my madness…
Firstly, it is a really competitive race – one could almost argue, too competitive to tip/bet in.
However, I am keen to oppose Zaynar, who I think will find it all a bit to much – and if you want to take on the favourite, there is likely to be value elsewhere…
The 3 I want against the field are Noland, Sa Suffit and Gilbarry.
Noland is the one I fancy most. It is rare for me to back a Paul Nicholls horse, because they tend to be overbet by the racing public – but I think 9/1 on Noland is a very fair price.
Noland really is a graded performer running in a handicap. I appreciate that he might not be the horse he once was- but his run last time in Ireland was pretty good. I think he’ll be fine with the trip and feel he will take a good deal of beating.
One that could shake him up is Sa Suffit. He is a borderline top class chaser as well – and he ran very creditably last time out. Going and trip will suit him well – and it strikes me as significant that James Ewart sends him all the way to Ascot as his only runner.
Finally, I can’t let Gilbarry pass at an insulting price, he also ran quite well last time, suggesting he is coming back to form. He has dropped 8lb in the handicap since the start of the season and should be well suited by tomorrow’s test.
Hopefully, the winner will come from one of these 3 – and if they happen to finish first, second and third, I will definitely retire on the spot ;)

0.5pt win Noland 9/1
0.25pt win Sa Suffit 16/1
0.25pt win Gilbarry 28/1