What can I say ! I really don’t feel I deserved that today – but then again, I don’t feel I’ve deserved quite a lot of what’s happened over the past month and a half…
In fairness, it was simply down to poor judgement today – not bad luck – but all the same, it was galling to watch first Moleskin and then Hey Big Spender win.
If you look through the write ups for today’s racing, you will see that 6 horses are mentioned: the 4 tips, plus those 2 ! Now that takes some doing…!!
Anyway, as I’ve said before – and I will doubtless say again – these things are sent to test us – and one thing’s for sure, they are certainly testing me at the moment !!
A quick summary of how the tips ran today (which without exception, was poorly !):
Handy Andy raced prominently until about half way at Warwick. However he then started to struggle and eventually finished in mid-division.
It was a similar story for Rajdahani Express, who also raced prominently before weakening. The trip looked a bit far for him and he was pulled up before the second last.
Fine Parchment was a huge drifter in the betting – quite surprisingly so, as he was strong this morning. He ran a reasonable race – but always looked to be outpaced. He plugged on to finish fifth and will doubtless appreciate a few pounds off his back and a softer surface.
Blazing Bailey was also outpaced for most of the journey and ended up finishing well beaten.
So there you have it, 3 points lost on a day when the story could have been completely different. I guess it comes down to those fine lines again…
Well Andy im sure you'll agree that was a big kick in the balls! I had intended to have a bit on Hey Big Spender as a saver like you said but i was in work and left it too late :( Grrrrr
ReplyDeleteJudging on that performance had he stayed on his feet in the welsh national he may well have won, but i suppose we'll never know. Only 3 points down the day, it wont take you long to claw that back ;)
Ciaran
I think you’ve summed up the feeling very nicely there, Ciaran – LOL !
ReplyDeleteWhat is so frustrating, is that yesterday could have been another Saturday like Hennessey day.
I had a short list of 6 horses – and it contained winners at 8/1 and 14/1. Yet somehow, I managed to turn that into a 3 point loss, when a 20 point profit would have been a more accurate reflection…
I’ve been trying to figure out why I got it wrong and I think there are a few possible reasons…
For a start, the lack of available time isn’t helping. I’m still happy with the horses that I’m finding but I’m not thinking long enough about how to stake them. Another possibility is that I don’t want to appear to be just following the same horses (I’d tipped both Moleskin and Hey Big Spender previously, whilst I’d not previously tipped any of the other 4). Finally, I’m acting more cautiously, generally, than I should be doing – that is simply the result of the struggle over the past 6 weeks…
The million dollar question, is can I sort it out – and unfortunately, I don’t know the answer to this…
My plan is simply to carry on, as I have been doing and see what happens. The time constraints remain, so there is likely to be action on some days but not on others.
If I hit another day like yesterday then I’ve just got to hope I’ve got the courage of my convictions to put up all 6 !
Whatever, I won’t let the P&L on the blog go into the red. I’m about 28points up now – but if I lose those, then I will stop blogging.
Let’s hope it doesn’t reach that point !!
Despite being on what could be described as a bad run i wouldnt let yourself be overcautios as this could and probably has cost you money, if people dont want to bet them thats understandable and up to them.
ReplyDeleteI was actualy expecting you to tip hey big spender on saturday as iv noticed you often tip the same horse a couple of times and also you have tipped two in the one race before (both coming in first and second). From following quite a few tipsters over the past 4 years iv noticed some of the losers come into great form after they have been tipped and being beat. Look at FIENDISH FLAME!
I truely cant see you going into a minus P&L from the start mate even though this is a notoriously bad time of year for tipsters/results.
Best of luck anyway and keep them coming :)
The point about tipping the same horse multiple times, is interesting…
ReplyDeleteWhat I try to do, is absorb myself in the racing during the winter months. Over this period, I attempt to identify horses to follow – horses that I think will be winning very soon. Obviously my hope is that they will win as soon as I tip them – but often, I will get there a race or two early. That is why I summarise performances after the races. The next time they run, I refer to that summary and it helps me decide whether or not to tip them again. Provided I can identify the right horses and I keep hold of them until they win, all should be well !
What I did on Saturday, was let go of 2 horses that I should have held on to. The main reason for this was that I was struggling for the time required to stand back and assess their races as a whole. Performing this task is absolutely crucial – but it takes time as it involves properly assessing the other horses in the race and trying to gain a perspective on the complete race.
I knew both horses had a chance – but I also knew that there were issues with them. What I didn’t do properly was assess those issues in the context of the race – instead I made a judgement on them in isolation. I could have been lucky and my judgement could have been right – but that wasn’t the case and I was forced to pay the price…
At the end of the day, I only have so much time for this and that means I have to cut corners. I have a good feel for what is generally required to win a certain level of contest and I tend to judge my selections against that level.
If they come up to scratch they are tips – if they don’t, they aren’t.
It’s not perfect, but it is the best I can generally manage in the time available. Like you say. I’m not forcing anyone to back any of the tips – that choice is down to the individual – all I can do is explain why I’m backing them and let others make up their own minds…
TVB.