7th January - Selection rationale

I may only have been away for a few days – but it feels a lot longer…!
When I’m following the racing really closely (as is currently the case), I build up a high level of intensity. If I break that intensity – even for just a day or two – I find it quite strange when I start looking at the form again.
That was certainly the case when I looked at things this evening – even though I’d been keeping a casual eye on events whilst I was away.
Consequently, I’m easing myself back in gently with just the 2 tips tomorrow:
One of which will come as no surprise to avid followers – and the other is also a horse that I’ve had my eye on for a little while.

Wincanton 2:50

I tipped Atouchbetweenacara when he was due to run at Haydock on December 30th.
He was withdrawn from that engagement, which may not have been a bad thing, considering how desperate the conditions were that day.
The case for him tomorrow, is broadly the same as it was for the Haydock race: he is a very well handicapped horse, who is now running over his optimum trip (and on more suitable going).
There is some strength in the opposition – but I guess that is why the bookmakers installed him as the outsider of the field !
Coup Royale could be particularly difficult to beat if returning to form, whilst I thought Consigliere ran well last time and yet he has been dropped 2lb for that run…
However, Atouchbetweenacara is by far the best handicapped horse in the field – if he bounces back to form – and at 11/1, is worth a play.

1.5pt win Atouchbetweenacara 11/1


Wincanton 3:25

This is another tough race, but I think Non Dom is worth a small play.
He was a decent flat performer and made an effective transition to hurdles last winter.
He won a couple of fair novice hurdles – showing an ability to handle cut in the ground and the 2m4f trip.
He didn’t run over the summer but has run twice so far, this jumps campaign.
First time out he was well beaten in the Gerry Fielden hurdle at Newbury – but he ran much better on his second outing at Ascot. Although he was again beaten a fair distance, he managed to finish sixth of 18 in a race where the first 2 home got away from the pack.
If he has come on again for that run, off a 2lb lower mark, he should be competitive tomorrow.
It has to be concerning that he faces a number of unexposed rivals - the pick of whom could well be the Paul Nicholls trained No Loose Change. He could be a blot on the handicap, but I think it is worth siding with Non Dom - each-way – in the hope that the unexposed sorts don’t all deliver…

0.5pt EW Non Dom 14/1