26th January - Selection rationale

I have to admit that I’m really struggling for time again…

Whilst I have little doubt that switching to an email distribution list is the right thing to do, it has become another task on an ever growing list. I feel like I need more hours in the day – but as that won’t happen, I’ve got to find other ways of making time…

What I’ve must ensure, is that it doesn’t affect the quality of the tips. They have deliberately been thin on the ground this week, simply because I am finding it difficult to find the time to study the form properly.

I missed out on a couple of potential winners yesterday because I didn’t get time to look properly at the races they were running in – and there was a danger of the same thing happening today.

When I looked yesterday, there were 2 races and 4 horses that I was drawn to.

Both races were at Warwick: the 1:55 and 3:25 races. The horses in question were Inga Bird and Tim the Chair in the 1:55 and Ockey De Neulliac and Reginaldinho in the 3:25.

I expected Inga Bird and Ockey to be put in as favourites – with the other 2 around the 8/1 mark.

Needless to say, it was Tim the Chair and Reginaldinho that I was primarily interested in

However, the bookies early bird odds were not as I expected – and that threw me !

Inga Bird and Ockey were longer than I thought they would be: whilst Tim the Chair and Reginaldinho shorter.

I decided to leave it a little while: but Reginaldinho just shortened further – thereby removing any chance of him becoming a tip !

Tim the Chair, on the other hand, has drifted back to what I consider an acceptable price.
I’m still a little worried about Inga Bird – but I think that 6/1 on Tim is fair enough.

Just a few keep words on Tim the Chair…

He is a very unexposed chaser, who won on his debut over the larger obstacles last march and was sent off a 17/2 chance for the Southern National, back in November.

He made a number of mistakes that day and consequently wasn’t able to do himself justice. However, he travelled like a decent animal – and provided his jumping holds up today, I think he should go well.

It will help that he has been dropped 2lb in the ratings and is now competing in a class 4 event (the Southern national is class 3).

I don’t think he will have any issue with either trip or going and feel he represents fair value at 6/1.

As I’ve already said, I think the biggest danger is Inga Bird. He has looked an improved performer over fences – and was in the process of running a very good race last time out, when he came down at the last. Provided he is fully recovered from that fall, I think he is also likely to go very well today.

1pt win Tim the Chair 6/1