27th January - Selection rationale

*This post was written last night, but only put up this morning, after I had tipped Somewhatinevitable

A couple of selections for tomorrow – and if I’m honest, both come with risks…

I certainly wouldn’t advocate backing either EW, as I suspect they will either win or bust !!

The prices of both are interesting as well, as doubling or halving is a distinct possibility for both of them !

In particular, I wouldn’t want to see Rose of the Moon drift as the off approaches – and whilst I wouldn’t see it as such a negative for Somewhatinevitable, I wouldn’t see it as a positive either !

Anyway, on to the logic for the choices…

Huntingdon 3:10

This was the race I targeted when I first looked at tomorrow’s declarations…

I’m happy to take on the favourite Oscargo, who is now 17lb higher than when beating Kayf Aramis at Cheltenham a couple of runs back.

It is a similar story with Theologist, who is 18lb higher than when finishing a very creditable second to Thehillofuisneach. Both horses are progressive – but the handicapper has set them serious challenges and they are short enough in the betting.

Benny be Good probably has the most solid credentials and I could easily seeing him being placed – however, I’ll be a little surprised if there isn’t at least one better than him.

I’m hoping that one might be Rose Of the Moon, who makes his handicapping debut for David Pipe tomorrow, sporting blinkers for the first time – and carrying ace stable apprentice Conor O’Farrell. The subtle signs are positive, that’s for sure !

In fairness, if you look into the formbook, there are some pretty positive pointers there as well…

In particular, a second behind Bobs Worth at Cheltenham last new years day. The winner is now rated 152 over hurdles – but the form looks exceptionally strong because of the subsequent performances of the horses who finished behind Rose of the Moon that day…

Barbatos, Astracad, Saint Are, Golden Chieftain, Safron De Cotte – and today’s Thystes winner, On his Own, to name but six !

Put simply, if Rose of the Moon runs to that level of form tomorrow, He will hack up !

His performances since that day haven’t been as good (though they haven’t been desperate), however, they have ensured that he is able to race tomorrow off a mark of 122. Take off a further 3lb for Conor O’Farrell’s claim and you potentially have a seriously well handicapped horse.

Assuming connections have got the prices, I think it safe to assume that they know will know what to do with such a well handicapped horse ;)

1pt win Rose of the Moon 7/1

Huntingdon 3:40

My biggest issue with Somewhatinevitable, was deciding how many points to have on him !

In some respects, he is a seriously risky selection: he is jumping a fence for the first time in public and finished nearly last on his seasonal debut a couple of weeks ago.

However, I suspect he has the natural ability to be a different class to his rivals tomorrow – and if things fall right, I reckon he could hack up as well !!

Somewhatinevitable first came to my attention last January when running very well in a novice hurdle at Huntingdon. My feeling that day was that he was a horse that you would want to follow when he was sent handicapping.

That happened on his final start of last season at Ludlow, but he ran too freely and finished last.

He was then put away for the summer, only making his seasonal debut at Warwick a fortnight ago. That was in a very competitive horse, but Somewhatinevitable travelled really well that day, over a trip likely to be too sharp for him.

He wasn’t given a hard time when it became clear he wasn’t going to feature in the finish and consequently he has been dropped 5lb for that performance.

I’m a little surprised to see him tackling fences tomorrow- but not overly concerned.

I’ve no idea how proficient his jumping is, but I have a deal of confidence in his trainer, Paul Webber...

As I’ve said before, there are 2 components to a good bet: a strong selection and weak opposition. Well, I’ve made the case for Somewhatinevitable – but if you took him out of the race, I’d struggle to make a case for anything else !

If Pingaro De La Vire sets the standard, then it’s a standard that I’m confident Somewhatinevitable can surpass – provided his jumping cuts the mustard..!

2pt win Somewhatinevitable 6/1