I’m splitting my tips and writes ups into 2 halves for tomorrow.
In part, this is due to the uncertainty over the non-Cheltenham fixtures (freezing temperatures are forecast) and maybe connected to this, the bookmakers have been a little lax in pricing up some of the races.
Depending on how things pan out, there could be a further 2 or 3 more tips tomorrow morning.
If that’s the case, they will be out before 9:00.
For now though, there is just the write up for the two Cheltenham selections – plus a few thoughts on the big handicap…
Cheltenham 1:20
You are likely to find over the next few months, that some horses will get tipped by me a number of times…
This is not me being lazy ! I try to find horses which I feel are ready to win. Sometimes I’ll be spot on first time; other times, I will have arrived a run or two too early. In that case, provided I see nothing that changes my mind, there is a fair chance I will continue to tip the same horse (Fiendish Flame and Buffalo Bob are good examples of this happening)
Last time out, I tipped Oiseau de Nuit in the Paddy Power gold cup.
That was on the back of what I considered to be an almost career best run in the Halden Gold Cup.
Unfortunately, Oiseau De Nuit made a shuddering mistake in the Paddy Power gold cup, which ruined any chance he may have had in that contest. He ended up coming home a well beaten 12th – but I think the run can be ignored. He was certainly travelling well enough in the race until that mistake.
My biggest concern last time, was whether Oiseau De Nuit would be suited to the step up to 2m4f. Well tomorrow, he is running back over 2miles, so that concern is removed.
Furthermore, the presence of Tanks for That, should ensure there is a strong gallop, which is precisely what Oiseau needs. As has been the case for his last few outings, a decent claimer has been booked to ride and he will take off a valuable 7lb.
Dangers abound in the race, most notably Oh Crick and the novice Astracad (who is owned by the family of the Jenny Mould, whose honour the race is run in aid of – he will have been laid out for this race).
However, off a pound lower rating than in the Paddy Power, Oiseau De Nuit should run a really solid race – and may even be able to get his head in front where it matters.
I was going to put him up EW, but I don’t like the place terms on offer (1/5th odds 1,2,3) so instead I’m suggesting just a small place bet to cover the win part of the bet.
1pt win/0.5pt place Oiseau de Nuit 16/1
Cheltenham 3:05
I don’t think this race is a strong as it initially looks…
With the possible exception of Grandouet, I can’t see any of these making an impact in a champion hurdle - which is a bit surprising for a race if it’s stature.
As the only one with real star potential, I guess Grandouet could have been a tip. However, he still has a lot to prove and is best priced at 3/1…
I think the race looks primed for a shock – the difficulty is figuring out who might be capable of providing it…
Strange as it might sound, the form horse in the race is Clerks Choice !
He finished just a couple of lengths behind Menorah in last seasons champion hurdle and is 4lb better of tomorrow. As he was also only 5 at the time, he should have the greater scope for improvement. Overturn was 5 lengths further back that day, so he is safely held on 4lb better terms !
So that’s the second and third favourites taken care of – and as the other 2 well fancied horses in the race are both 4 year olds (Grandouet and Brampour) and I have a bit of an issue with 4 year olds taking on their elders over hurdles, the tip almost selected itself !
I would feel far happier if Clerk’s Choice had already run this season – but he won on his seasonal debut last year and I suspect that new trainer, Oliver Sherwood will have him tuned for tomorrow.
He has saved all of his best hurdling performances for Cheltenham – and will relish the relatively quick ground.
In fact, the more I write about him the more I wonder why I’ve only had a point on him ! Here’s hoping I live to rue that decision ;)
1pt win Clerk’s Choice 14/1
Cheltenham 2:30
My what a trappy race this is !
I could literally give half the field a decent chance – and in those situations, it is invariably best to leave a race alone.
The big eye-catcher, is AP McCoy doing 10st 4lb to ride Sunnyhillboy. I mentioned the other day that maybe JP McManus is in need of a few Euro at the moment – and if this one is really backed tomorrow, you would have to take note. The trouble is, according to the form book (and to my eyes !) he should struggle to win; consequently, I will struggle to back him !
I was half tempted to tip Salut Flo. I think he could go very close, provided David Pipe has him fully revved up after 616 days off the track ! However a best price of 12/1 almost assumes this is the case, so he wasn’t too difficult to leave alone.
From a form perspective, I would probably go with either Great Endeavour or Divers.
However, Ghizao, Medermitt and Roudoudou Ville all look interesting !
As I said at the beginning, a very trappy race, which I feel it is best to leave alone from a betting perspective !
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