3rd December - Selection rationale (part 2)

As I said last night, I could have gone on and on tipping today – but you have to draw the line somewhere !
I’ll be surprised if I’ve made all the right calls today – there were just too many possibles and it’s not easy judging appropriate stakes either (particularly if the prices are going – and when you are trying to juggle doing other things !).
This said, I’ve got confidence in the basic ammunition, so hopefully, we get the bit of luck we need with the results…

Don’t forget, I’m not around for the rest of today – and most of tomorrow. There will therefore be no tips tomorrow and the race reviews for today will only appear late on tomorrow.

Below is brief rationale for the horses that complete today’s list of bets:

Aintree 2:10

Shalimar Fromento is a bit like Mister No, in so much as there is a fair bit of guesswork involved…
He’s half the price of Mister No though – so the bet is half a big (remember the ‘value’ principal ;) ).
Why would Nick Williams run a 5 year old over the National fences ? The horse is only just out of the novice stage, so getting him to jump the National fences on only the ninth run of his life, seems a very big ask.
However, Williams is not a trainer to over-face his horse, so he clearly thinks Shalimar Fromento will be up to the task.
If he is, he must go very close. He has already shown a decent level of form and is progressing fast.
Provided he takes to the unique Aintree fences, I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t go very close…

0.5pt win Shalimar Fromento 10/1


Chepstow 2:05

This is going to be a war !
Chepstow has only just managed to pass an inspection this morning due to the amount of rain they have received. Heavy at Chepstow is like heavy nowhere else – it will take a certain type of horse to get through it…
Clearly to stand a chance, a horse will need to be able to operate in desperate conditions; it will also need to be extremely fit – and ideally lightly weighted.
Victory Gunner has to be of interest, as he ticks all 3 boxes – as does Rhum. Richards Sundance only ticks 2 of the boxes – but the booking of talented conditional, Ed Glassonbury, goes a long way to ticking the third ;)
I do like the booking of these top-notch conditional jockeys. Generally, they are worth more than their allowance and it is often a subtle pointer that a horse is fancied.
There can be little doubt that Richard Sundance will relish the conditions – his last win came over 3m2f on heavy ground at Wincanton. He is also fit, following a decent comeback run.
Hopefully, he will be able to get the better of the veteran Victory Gunner – and the inexperienced Rhum.

0.5pt win Richards Sundance 11/1


Chepstow 3:15

As I’ve just said, it takes a certain type of horse to win at Chepstow when it’s heavy and Plein Pouvoir has already proven himself the right type…
He absolutely dotted up there in heavy ground last February - and has been paying the price ever since…
His Handicapped mark was raised 12lb for that victory and despite 4 subsequent disappointing runs (he’s been pulled up on the last 2 of them) the handicapper has only relented to the tune of 4lb…
If I’m honest, I don’t think that today will be the day for Plein Pouvoir. However, he has perfect conditions and his relatively big weight won’t bother him (he’s a huge slab of a horse).
At the odds available, I simply have to have a small bet as form of insurance. If he runs another poor race today, we can simply look at it as an investment ;)

0.5pt win Plein Pouvoir 18/1