12th December - Selection rationale

Part of the reason behind me creating this blog, was so that I had something interesting to do in the cold, dark winter nights (rather than just watching TV !)…
Saturdays are great for racing action, but I really enjoying wrestling with the following day’s feature race on a mid-week evening.
This evening, I’ve had the best part of an hour, to mull over the runners for the handicap chase that takes place at Fakenham tomorrow afternoon.
I started with a horse – and I ended up with the same horse – but I assessed the chances of all the opponents in between.

Fakenham 2:00

You won’t be too surprised to hear that the horse I started with was Otage De Brion.
Some of you will recall that I tipped him when he last ran, at Doncaster, a couple of weeks ago. He ran a very creditable race that day to finish third.
I tipped him for that race because he had previously run a very solid race at Bangor.
I don’t know how many people reading this blog are actually interested in form study, but for those who are, this is a classic case of a really solid horse to back…
He has been steadily coming to the boil this season, posting slightly improved efforts on his last 2 runs; the form of his last run was franked on Saturday, when the winner of that race won a better quality race at Doncaster; he has been dropped a pound by the handicapper for the Doncaster run; he has trip and ground in his favour tomorrow.
In short, provided his jumping holds up, he should build further on his last run – and if he does that, he should go very close to winning.
If every horse you backed was as solid as this one, you wouldn’t lose money – trust me on that !
In terms of the opposition, the first thing that struck me is that quite a few of them have been harshly punished for last time out victories. The ‘1’ next to their names will make them attractive to punters – but the increase in their handicap marks should temper enthusiasm…
The most stark example of this is Investment Affair (who is the 7/1 second favourite). He won a 5 runner race that just fell apart, last time out – and has been raised 10lb for doing so ! Further more, he is an 11 year old (12 in a few weeks time). I’m not saying he can’t win – but you wouldn’t catch me getting involved at those kind of odds !!
Knight Legend, Gorge and Frontier Spirit also fall into this category. As with Investment Affair, I’m not saying they can’t win – just that they have a much more difficult job to do so than the betting implies.
A few of the runner are also either totally out of form or haven’t run for a very long time, so it would be a guess to put them up (Nozic, Cottage Flyer, Harouet and Qrackers fall into this category).
That left me with 4 runners to consider: The Magic Bishop, Pilgrims Lane, Only Vintage and Otage De Brion.
The Magic Bishop looked last time out, as if he was correctly handicapped, so he was the first one I dismissed.
I wanted to put up Only Vintage as he is handicapped to win. However, watching his last run, I just didn’t see enough. He might come good I guess, but it would take an act of faith to back him.
Pilgrims Lane however is very interesting – and I considered a saver on him. Provided the ground stays quick (which is not guarenteed), I can see no other reason why he shouldn’t run well.
However, the most solid option is Otage De Brion – he wouldn't want the ground too soft either (though he should handle a little cut) but assuming that's not the case, I will be extremely disappointed if he doesn’t go very close.

1pt EW Otage De Brion 12/1