Following the cross country chase at Cheltenham on Friday, I said I would like a bit of the luck of the guy who managed to get the tricast up in that race (when the 6 horses in front of his 3 took the wrong course !).
I think the events at Fakenham today, demonstrated that the good fortune has not been transferred across :(
I don’t want to harp on about bad luck too much – it gets you nowhere (in fact, it can almost become self-fulfilling) – but have to admit that I was left wondering again, after the events of this afternoon…
The thing was, Otage De Brion was jumping and travelling like a dream in front. I know there was still a circuit to go, but I really couldn’t see how he was not going to be involved in the finish. The Betfair IR players thought the same – he was trading at just over 2/1 at the time of his exit…
These things happen – people make mistakes. You wouldn’t think it that difficult to count up to 3 – but Sam Waley-Cohen clearly found it a bit tricky !
His post race suggestion that the horse had choked were in a way, understandable (he would have thought himself likely to lose the King George ride on Long Run) – but they were also laughable and didn’t show him in a particularly good a light. Desperate events cause desperate reactions, I guess…
I’m not sure where all this leaves Otage De Brion. Presumably he will be running in a tongue tie next - whether he needs one or not ! The way he travelled today suggests that compensation should be just around the corner – provided he isn’t made some kind of sacrificial lamb !
I did think the race was going to take a further turn for the worse, when Only Vintage mounted a challenge at the last. He was the horse I was initially drawn to last night – but I felt I couldn’t put him up (at 25/1 !) due to his very poor run last time.
Well, he ran a whole lot better today – and might even have won if he hadn’t capsized at the final fence. The fall managed to save my tipping sanity, but it didn’t do a lot for me betting wise, as I’d hade a small saver on him just in case he did miraculously recover his form.
I guess sometime, you just get one of those races – and today’s certainly fell into that category !!
Surely now thats our bad luck used up and its just winners from now on ;)
ReplyDeleteThat was a top class pick Andy, jumping like a dream and full of running. Im as sure as can be that we had the winner if not for the mistake. The two biggest f##k ups in racing in the last few months and we were on both of them! Thats racing tho!
Suppose we had to lend them a bit back for xmas :)
Keep them coming mate
You don’t want to go under-estimating the bad luck I can have on the horses Ciaran – as one or two of the other guys reading this will testify, it really does know no bounds ! As I said in my post on the subject, I’ve learnt to simply accept it and manage it via Betfair lays…
ReplyDeleteIn fact, I now look at it as fate’s way of handicapping me for my sublime ability to find great horses ! Class always defies the handicapper tho ;)