8th December - Selection rationale

It’s a really good day’s racing for the midweek, with the Peterborough chase at Huntingdon providing the headline act.
That said, the rest of the Huntingdon card is reasonable, as are the cards at Taunton and Ludlow.
If I’d had a little more time yesterday evening, I suspect I could have found a few bets. But, as is often the case, other demands on my time meant that I had to focus on a couple of races.
My efforts yielded just the one bet – and a very speculative one at that ! – but as you should know by now, I like to try to read between the lines… ;)

Before I explain the logic behind the bet, a few words on the big race of the day.

It really is a fascinating renewal of the Peterborough chase, with established stars taking on some very interesting up and coming sorts.
If you put my back to the wall, I would suggest a 1,2,3 of Somersby, The Nightingale and Tartak – though I wouldn’t received many awards for originality !
However, it is the presence of Surfing, Mr Moonshine and Hidden Keel, who make the race really interesting. All 3 have the potential to be very good – the trouble is, Somersby sets a very high standard.
I could see Mr Moonshine running a big race from the front – but I will be surprised if Somersby at least, doesn’t pick him off close to home.
A race to savour non-the-less…

So onto the tip…

Ludlow 3:10

I went for a couple of speculative shots on Saturday – and they did nothing ! – hopefully, Bill the Yank will do a little better today…
I suspect we will know well in advance of the off, whether that will be the case. This horse WILL be backed if it is going to win (or even run a race) – don’t say you’ve not been warned !
I reckon it could go off at 5/1 – of 33/1 ! If it’s the latter, I would suggest not watching and just tearing up your ticket !
I was actually half tempted to tip it last night – but with just the one bookmaker pricing up the race, we would have marked cards, and price would not have been there for connections.
Instead, I have let all the bookmakers price up this morning, so hopefully connections have still been able to get on – and we can get a decent price ! That’s the theory anyway !
Oh, I nearly forgot – the case for the horse !!
I watched it run in a novice hurdle in Limerick, back in July… That was only it’s second run under rules, following a last of 4 finish in a Killarney bumper earlier that month.
It was very well backed that day (officially 14/1 into 13/2 – but much more significantly on betfair) – and showed considerable promise. However, it wouldn’t settle in the race and was eventually well beaten.
I’ve been watching it since that day ;) It showed promise again on it’s hurdling debut – but I always felt the day to back this horse was when it made it’s handicapping debut. And that day is today !!
What has really surprised me, is that it’s been brought over to England to run.
I’ve no idea what the reasoning is behind that move – there are plenty of suitable races in which it could run in Ireland. Maybe connections think it has an even better chance of getting under the radar in the UK – or maybe they think they are less likely to come up against something that has been saved for the day: Or maybe there is a more straightforward reason, such as the horse is going to run for an English trainer from now on !
Like I say, I really don’t know – but I do think there is enough intrigue to warrant a small bet at 14/1.
The big worry (apart from the fact that I might have completely mis-read things !) is the presence of Hard Tackle. JP McManus has been landing a few touches recently (maybe things are a bit tight for him at the moment !) and putting Maurice Linehan up on this one is a particularly eye-cattching move. If it goes off at 13/8 (like Christopher Wren did yesterday), I suspect we will have done our money on Bill the Yank !!

1pt win Bill the Yank 14/1


Ludlow 2:40

I was tempted to put up Midnight Haze at 10/1 yesterday evening – but couldn’t find time to get myself sufficiently organised ! It is now trading at roughly half those odds – which is a little annoying !!
In fairness, he comes with risks – and the opposition is not too bad. I am particularly interested in Pigeon Island, who has the natural ability to win this if things fall right for him.
Hopefully putting Midnight Haze up on here will fate him not to win – but then again…!!