7th December - Selection rationale

It’s just under a week since Fiendish Flame bolted up for us at Leicester.
That was a very impressive performance and I said at the time, that he should be able to remain competitive off any rating in the 130s. Well, he gets to run tomorrow off a mark of 132 (his old rating plus a 7lb penalty), so he should be competitive !
And I believe he will – in fact, I think he will take the beating. However, he is 7lb higher, in a significantly stronger race and he also has to over-come running just 6 days ago – yet he is a best price of 2/1 against the 11/1 we took last week ! I simply had to look elsewhere…
The most obvious place is Christopher Wren. He is a relatively unknown quantity, with AP up and from the stable of Nick Gifford, who likes to run some of his better horses at Leicester. However, at 3/1, he was relatively easy to pass on as well…
Next stop was Afsoun, a former high class hurdler who would be thrown in off a mark of 130, if anywhere near his former best. I do think he represents theoretical value – but having watched his seasonal debut run again, I can’t really seeing him confirming the form with Fiendish Flame – even though he is 8lb better off !
There is little doubt in my mind, that the really interesting one in the field, is Ranjobaie…
He was a hugely promising novice hurdler for Nicky Henderson a couple of seasons back. He ran 4 times and was beaten by Menorah and Notus De La Tour, before beating Bygones of Brid. All 3 of these horses subsequently proved themselves to be very talented indeed (rated 140+).
In his final outing of that season, Ranjobaie finished third in the NH novices handicap hurdle final at Sandown. That was a cracking run – off the same mark as tomorrow – and he was a little unlucky not to win…
Last season he moved to Venetia Williams stable – and switched his attention to fencing.
Unfortunately that didn’t go too well, with his 3 outings yielding an unseated rider and a pulled up. However, between those 2 races, he finished runner-up to the now 149 rated Sarando. He was cantering all over that rival, when he pecked at the second last and subsequently found nothing…
On his first run of this season, he was switched back to hurdles for a grade 2 race at Haydock (where I tipped Indian Daudaie).
Again , he travelled really well to the third last, but then found little when put under pressure and eventually came home well beaten.
To my eyes, he looked as if he needed that run – however, I think it very interesting that connections are using a tongue tie on him tomorrow for the first time.
Either way, if Ranjobaie manages to last home tomorrow, I think he could be handicapped to win ! Ofcourse, there is a possibility that Christopher Wren will have stones in hand of his mark; or that Fiendish Flame will run to the mid-140 rating of which he is capable – or even that Afsoun bounces back to something like his former best. I am therefore covering the win part of the bet with a place bet (ie. a bet of 1pt EW and 1pt win).
There is also a possibility that Ranjobaie won’t get home again – or that I have completely mis-read things !
However, at odds of 20/1, I am prepared to take that risk and place the maximum (for the time being at least !) 3points on his back.
Fingers Crossed he doesn’t let us down !!

2pt win/1pt place Ranjobaie 20/1