2nd December - Race reviews

It may only have been 3 points profit on the day – which in the grand scheme of things is trivial – but I got a deep satisfaction from the way things worked out today…
The key thing to being a successful bettor is discipline – without it you are stuffed !
Last night, I strongly fancied both Incentivise and Satou – but I wasn’t happy with the odds on offer for either one…
I was expecting Incentivise to be priced up around 8/1 – I was even hoping he might have been 10/1. However, 6/1 was the best price on offer…
At 10/1, he would have been a 2 point bet – at 6/1, he became a marginal 1point bet.
Some people may struggle to understand this logic - but it is fundamental to ‘value betting’ – and I’ve a value disciple.
In broad terms, the bigger the value, the bigger the bet. It’s all about exploiting your edge.
At 6/1, there was barely an edge on Incentivise. I could easily have passed on him – but then I would have been very irritated if he had won.
It was a similar story with Satou. He was probably the horse I fancied most to win today but at 10/3, there was no margin in his price.
However, by lunchtime today, he had drifted to 5/1 – and there was plenty of margin in that price !
If he had been available at 5/1 last night, he would have been a 2 point bet – but I’m not keen on going in too heavy on drifters (you might not be playing on a level field).
Anyway, the long and short of it was that we ended the day with 3 points profit, when we might have had 3 points loss. Obviously, days like yesterday are great – but they will only happen once or twice a month. It’s days like today – normal days, with marginal calls – when it is important to get those calls right. A few 6 point swings and a healthy P&L can soon start to look a bit sickly.

So, onto the actual performances of today’s tips…


I was quite disappointed with the run of Incentivise.
Considering he had virtually everything in his favour today, I really was expecting him to go close.
However, he began to struggle down the back straight and was beaten by the time he turned for home.
He looked like a poorly handicapped horse – but he didn’t look that way last time out and he was 3lb lower today ! The other possibility is that he struggled carrying a big weight over a marathon trip (he’s not that big).
Whatever, my inclination is likely to be to watch him the next time he runs…


Quinz also ran disappointingly, in the intermediate chase.
He started brightly enough (unlike last time) and seemed to be travelling well for a while.
However, I thought Richard Johnson was showing signs of concern as they went out on the second circuit and sure enough, Quinz was pulled up 6 fences from home.
It subsequently transpired that he burst a blood vessel (again) – and consequently he really can’t be followed in the future.
It’s a real shame, as the horse looked to have enormous potential last year.
Golan Way ended up a game winner – but the race did fall apart a bit and I wouldn’t be entirely convinced that he could follow up in a more competitive race.


I’m not one to criticise jockeys – particularly NH jockeys.
They put life and limb on the line, day in day out, in all types of weather. They may love the job, but you still have to admire them for what they do.
Generally, I also believe that the vast majority try their best to win every race they ride in. More often than not, when something goes wrong, it is simply human error rather than anything more sinister (as lots of punters would like to have you believe !).
Richard Johnson is one of the best jockeys riding at the moment and as I said, I would never criticise him – but if he has a weakness, he can sometimes be guilty of not presenting a horse at a fence, in the optimum way.
There is little doubt in my mind, that Satou would have won today’s race much more comfortably, if he’d not made a complete mess of the second last.
To his credit, Johnson did well to sit tight – but the horse lost 2 or 3 lengths and valuable momentum.
However, Richard Johnson’s main strength is his fierce determination and will to win.
If his partner is up to the job, then Johnson is rarely going to lose out in a driving finish !
And so it turned out. Having nearly parted company at the second last, Johnson gathered his horse together and committed him at the final fence (something he maybe should have done at the previous obstacle).
Once it had been safely negotiated and it was simply a battle up the hill, I knew that Johnson would get Satou up. With the possible exception of AP, there really is nobody stronger in the saddle.
So for once, a selection of mine won by a short head rather than getting beaten by one ! – and it was very nice to be on the other end of a close result !
Satou should only get a small rise for this victory (maybe 3lb) and I suspect he could still be competitive of his revised mark.