3rd December - Race reviews

As I mentioned previously, I haven’t been around for most of this weekend and so only saw a few of yesterday's races live. One of those was the Reindeer Dippin race – and that didn’t do a great deal for my mood for the rest of the weekend !
I managed to find an hour or so late last night, to catch up on the other races…
My initial feeling was that it had been a disappointing day – but on reflection, I don’t think that is fair…
I think it was a perfectly reasonable day – I just didn’t get the breaks and consequently lost a couple of points.
However, I would view most of the selections as ‘good bets’ – and with a bit of ‘luck’ we could have been looking at another significant payout.
If you are putting yourself in that position – and not losing much when things don’t fall into place, you can’t be doing too much wrong !

I’ll deal with the selections in the logical pairs which I felt they fell into: The strong fancies (Reindeer Dippin and Bufflao Bob); The speculative plays (Mister No and Shaliamr Fromento) and the hopeful shots (Richards Sundance and Plein Pouvoir).

Starting with the strong fancies…

I said that Reindeer Dippin would be unlucky to come up against a horse as well handicapped as the one that beat him last time he ran at Aintree – well, he was unlucky !!
He travelled like a dream throughout the race and I as he entered the home straight, I really thought it was simply a question of how far he would win by. Unfortunately Featherbed Lane was travelling just as sweetly, and when push came to shove, he found a bit more than Reindeer.
Defeat was tough to stomach. I’ve had a good run of winners recently, but this one reminded me that I’d had an even better run of seconds just before that !
On Saturday morning, I was thinking I should have made Reindeer a 3pt win bet (I really did think he was rock solid); after the race, I was thinking that 1.5pt EW would have been a more prudent play !!
At the end of the day, I went win only because I thought it was a very good bet. The market agreed with me big time – and I’ve no real regrets about not going EW.
He was beaten by a better horse – and I didn’t think there would be one in the race. These things happen though and you have to just move on…
I’m sure Reindeer will get a rise in the weights for his performance and although I might be interested in him in bottom-less ground, the secret is out, so I would be surprised if he represented much in the way of value next time out.

Buffalo Bob ran his normal game, genuine race and briefly looked like he might be going to collect.
However, the front two forged away from him over the final two obstacles and he could only stay on for a gallant third.
As I’ve said before, I love this horse: he’s so game and such a good jumper – he’s exactly what you look for in a chaser.
Clearly he’s got limitations - and he is just about in the handicappers grip – but he will always give everything and while EW betting is an option, you’re never going to lose much money on a horse like him.
I didn’t feel that he particularly enjoyed jumping round Aintree – he is maybe a tad small for the fences. I would therefore be prepared to follow him again next time – provided he is given long enough to recover from his exertions and it pitched into the right race.

Just a quick mention for his jockey, Jason Maguire, who also rode Reindeer Dippin.
I thought he gave both horses excellent rides. Buffalo Bob is normally a front runner, but knowing that the pace was likely to be frantic, with both Frankie Figg and Santas Son going for it, Maguire sensibly held up Buffalo Bob and let him creep into the race.
He may not have won but I felt Maguire enabled him to achieve his best possible placing, with a really intelligent ride.
He did similar on Reindeer, who also likes to race prominently but who was held up off a strong pace.
Jockeys don’t always use their heads when riding but Maguire certainly did yesterday which I’m sure is one of the reasons why his star had been in the ascendancy for a few years now…

The speculative plays…

Both Mister No and Shalimar Fromentro ‘crashed and burnt’ – which I guess was always a possibility !
Mister No never really looked likely to threaten and was eventually pulled up.
Shalimar Fromentro, on the other hand, was still very much in contention when he came down at Bechers Brook.
He had jumped pretty well until that point – not being betrayed by his inexperience – but that fence is a heck of a challenge for a horse a virtual novice.
Ultimately, it was just too much – but provided the experience has no lasting negative effects, I’m sure Shalimar Fromentro will gain future successes over fences.

And finally, the hopeful shots…

Richards Sundance and Plein Pouvoir both ran very creditable races to finish fourth (and perversely reward me for not putting them up EW !).
It was quite painful watching Richards Sundance’s race, as it was won by Le Beau Bai, whom I tipped when he ran a lifeless race at Fontwell, early in November.
He next ran over hurdles at Cheltenham, the following week and he did show a bit more there – but not enough for me to follow him yesterday. The blinkers that were first applied at Cheltenham, clearly had a significant effect as he was prominent throughout yesterday and looked likely to win from around half way.
Richards Sundance ran a perfectly creditable race and there will doubtless be other, slightly less competitive races for him in the future…
Plein Pouvoir was quite an eye-catcher and is definitely one to look out for.
He was very well backed yesterday – which is invariably a good sign- and he ran his best race since his Chepstow success of February.
That said, he again didn’t every really look like winning, so I think he will need a few more pounds off his rating – or a slightly easier race, if he is to collect in the immediate future…