26th December - Selection rationale

An amazing day’s racing – and one where I had to focus on just a few meetings to prevent myself from going mad !
The meetings I chose were Kempton, Wetherby & Wincanton – and between them, they have yielded 4 selections.
3 of them are past tips, whom I hope will come good today – though the fourth one, is my strongest bet of the day.

The 3 feature races on the Kempton card are absolute crackers – though I am resisting the temptation to tip in any of them.

I’m hopeful that Master Minded will be able to come out best in a class King George.
Whisper it quietly, but I think there is a chance that Long Run may be over-rated. Certainly, I think it possible to pick holes in his form – and whilst he might prove to be the real deal, I don’t think he has proved it just yet…
Kauto in his prime would win – but it’s impossible not to have doubts about a horse who will be 12 in a weeks time and who has had such a long career…
Captain Chris could be up to the job – but he still has a lot to prove and his jumping remains a concern at this level.
There is no doubts over the jumping of Master Minded – nor his class. The question mark is over his stamina. However, he has proven himself effective over 2m4f – and Paul Nicholls remains adamant he will stay the 3m. I personally think he is right – though I would want him to be jumping the last a few lengths clear !
Whatever, I think he will trade odds on IR – so I’ll be taking out my usual insurance, just in case !!

I don’t have a strong view on the Christmas hurdle – though I guess it would be nice to see Rock on Ruby win.

The race I am most looking forward to is the Feltham novice chase, where Grands Crus takes on Bobs Worth and Silvianco Conti.
Regular readers will know what I huge fan I am of Grans Crus – and he is going to get a serious examination here !
I think he will be up to the task though – which will then give connections an interesting dilemma… Assuming he wins, he will have proven himself the best staying novice in the country, which will make the Sun Alliance chase less of a challenge.
My hope is that he will then be targeted at the Cotswold chase at the Cheltenham trials meeting at the end of January – and pitched in against seasoned chasers with a view to taking in the big one in March.
In that scenario, my 33/1 ticket for the Gold Cup with Stan James, will be looking very attractive indeed !!

Anyway, enough of this and on to the rationale behind today’s 4 tips…

Kempton 1:25

Gandalfe caught my eye last time out in a very hot novice handicap at Newbury.
He was unfancied that day, but was still travelling nicely at the cross fence. It looked at the time as if he might play a hand at the finish but his effort petered out up the home straight.
Connections drop him back 4furlongs in trip today which is interesting – but they also re-apply blinkers – which is even more interesting !
The only previous time Gandalfe has sported blinkers was on his final run of last season, when he ran a blinder behind Mamlook (and in front of Starluck).
He was ridden aggressively that day and almost matched to nick the race.
I suspect he will be ridden aggressively again today – and think he will take some pegging back.

0.75pt EW Gandalfe 25/1


Kempton 3:40

Frontier Dancer was the first winning tip on this blog, when successful at Ffos Las on his debut for Lawney Hill.
He looked sure to go on from that victory and I tipped him again when he reappeared at Newbury a couple of weeks later.
However, he was hugely disappointing that day and finished well beaten.
I can’t be sure as to why he ran so disappointingly last time – but it is very interesting that connections apply a tongue tie for the first time today.
If breathing issues were the reason for his poor showing, then I would be hopeful that he could bounce back today.
Certainly the handicapper has given him every chance. He was only raised 3lb in the first place, for his Ffos Las victory and he was subsequently dropped a pound for his Newbury run.
In truth, this does look a very trappy race – and I would be surprised if one or two weren’t too good – even for a peak form Frontier Dancer. However, at ¼ odds a place on the first 4 home, you are getting over 8/1 on him to be placed – and I think that represents a good bet, provided whatever troubled him last time has been cured…

0.25pt EW Frontier Dancer 33/1


Wetherby 2:55

I tipped Storymaker last time he ran at Bangor on Hennessey gold cup day.
He was pulled up that day, but I didn’t think he ran too badly.
I said at the time that he needed a few pounds off his back – and softer ground.
Well, he gets both of those today: he is running off a mark 4lb lower (the same mark as his last wining mark) and on ground which is officially soft.
He is also running over a trip of 2m4f, which is probably more suitable than the 3mile trip at Bangor.
Although quite a competitive race today, it has a nice shape about it and if Storymaker can run his race, then 25/1 to win (5/1 to place) seems a very fair price.

0.5pt EW Storymaker 25/1


Wetherby 3:30

Sophonie was another horse that I tipped last time out (there are getting to be quite a few of these !).
That was in a 2mile chase at Wetherby. She ran very well that day, suggesting that she was handicapped to win. However, she made some significant jumping mistakes and they ultimately cost her.
She is switched to hurdles today, which will hopefully remove the issue of jumping mistakes.
She is also running off a mark 7lb lower. The trip and ground should be perfect –and she has the excellent Lucy Alexander on board, claiming 7lb.
In short, I think she has a very good chance – and if the money comes for her, I think she will win !!

1pt win Sophonie 15/2