9th December - Race reviews

Just occasionally, I don’t mind losing money ! If I can view it as an investment for the future, then I am prepared to take the odd hit – so long as it is relatively small !
That is exactly how I view today’s loss on Aather - because one thing is for sure, to quote the old saying, ‘it’s only money lent’ !
The horse cruised through the race and, as it rounded the final bend, it looked sure to play a hand in the finish. It then went out like a light and ultimately finished well beaten.
It will doubtless have it’s rating dropped a few pounds for today’s run - not that it really needs it ! Mark my words, this horse will win very soon, and we will be on it when it does ;)
It would be reasonable to ask, why I tipped it today, when I suspected all along that today wasn’t going to be the day…
At the end of the day, it was a 25/1 shot, that was handicapped to win. My guess was that the booking of the 10lb claimer demonstrated that today wasn’t the day – but there was a possibility it could have demonstrated the complete opposite !
If it had been backed down to 5/1 favourite and bolted up, I would have been gutted – and the 0.5pt win was simply an insurance against that happening.
You have to think long term in this game…

I can’t help but feel that we missed one with Knockara Beau…
I was proven right to take on the top 2 in the market – and there was sufficient confidence behind Knockara to make me think I’d got that call right as well.
However, ultimately that proved not to be the case.
In fairness, he ran a sound race – but he simply needed more of a test. He made a couple of mistakes when the pace quickened 4 out and lost a fair amount of ground. He closed bravely up the final hill, to take second, but he was never going to get to the winner.
This horse needs a specific set of conditions over fences – and when he gets them, he will win. If that happens in the next couple of months, I’ll make sure we are on him.

Finally (and it does seem an appropriate place to end !) the cross country chased descended into a complete farce, with only 3 of the runner taking the correct course - and unfortunately, Balthazars King was not one of the 3…
It is difficult to know where he would have finished if he had gone the right way. He was under pressure – but staying on. I suspect he would have been placed – but I’m not so sure he would have won.
For what it’s worth, my interpretation of events, is that Richard Johnson did try to take the correct course – but the horse was intent on following the leaders (they are pack animals after all).
It’s very easy to blame the jockey in situations like that, but I think he thought the leader was making a bee-line for the rail and he was following. It was only when it became apparent that she was making a bee-line for next course, that Johnson tried to take corrective action – but by then it was too late.
These things happen – and you can guarantee that when things aren’t going you way, they will go against you…

Talking of which, I’m an occasional viewer of the Betfair forum and I noticed just after the race that a guy posted who had managed to get a successful combination tricast on the race ! Apparently he had it to 50p units –and the bet paid £1609 !
Maybe when he’s finished with his luck , he can pass some of it on to me !!