I’ve run out of time a bit this evening… Too many things to do in the ‘real’ world !
However, I have got the main tips out and although I’m potentially interested in 3 or 4 others, they are generally in races that have only been priced up by a couple of bookmakers – or their best price isn’t particularly tight (so there appears no rush to back them – unless of course Pricewise tips them ;) )
If I am going to tip any of them (and I would expect to tip at least 1 or 2), then I will aim to issue the tips between 9:00 and 10:00 tomorrow morning (dependant on other commitments).
The racing tomorrow looks absolutely brilliant – and I could literally have given a dozen tips ! – but I’m unlikely to be able to see any of the action live, as I have other commitments for the day (and most of Sunday).
There will probably not be any blog updates tomorrow (aside from any additional tips) and therefore no tips on Sunday. I should be back ‘blogging’ on Sunday evening though…
Here’s hoping the good run continues !!
Aintree 12:35
As you’ve probably sussed from the staking, Reindeer Dippin is the ‘tip of the day’ !!
He really caught my eye last time out, when he travelled through the race at Haydock, with purpose. He was completely unfancied that day, and ultimately didn’t get home, but I suspect it will be a different story tomorrow !!
He actually ran a tremendous race over this very course and distance, at last years Grand National meeting. He finished second that day, having looked as though he might have stolen the race on the home turn.
Some how, he gets to run off the same mark again tomorrow – and will be unlucky to run in to a rival as well handicapped as he did that time.
Just behind him that day, was Wyse Hill Teabags. He reopposes tomorrow on 6lb worse terms – and yet is 9/2 second favourite ! As our American friends like to say – ‘go figure’ !
In fairness, Wyse Hill Teabags is a progressive animal and did run well last time, but I will still be very surprised if he can turn round the form.
Featherbed Lane also looks potentially dangerous – but he has been raised 9lb for his win last time and is 7/2 favourite.
In simple terms, Reindeer Dippin is a very good bet ! He could become an even better bet if the heavens open, as he loves heavy ground.
I thought briefly about EW – but I’d rather double the stake and go win only. Let’s hope I don’t regret that decision !!
2pt win Reindeer Dippin 10/1
Aintree 3:20
Regular readers will doubtless recall that I tipped Buffalo Bob just over a week ago…
He was the biggest bet I’d put up at the time and he didn’t let me down, running a really solid race to finish third. He was well beaten by a couple of horses significantly ahead of the handicap – but he was third best by a good margin.
The handicapper has rather leniently taken a further 3lbs off his rating for that run – and although he is again vulnerable to a really well handicapped rival, I can’t see why he won’t run another solid race tomorrow.
I guess the biggest issue is the fences. Buffalo Bob is a great jumper – but we are talking the National fences here – and he did fall last year when he tried them.
However, he got as far as the 8th that day (so got beyond Bechers Brook) and he wasn’t in top form in the spring.
I think Frankie Figg is a very big danger – and there are 3 or 4 others who I could also give a serious chance to.
However, provided Buffalo Bob jumps round, I will be amazed if he’s not in the frame – and if he’s in the frame, I reckon he has a 1 in 3 chance of winning ;)
1pt EW Buffalo Bob 12/1
Sandown 2:30
As you may have guessed, this is a bit if a gamble !
I have many assets – but knowledge of French provincial form is not one of them, so I am taking a guess on how good Mister No is.
That said, I’m in the same boat as the official handicapper, as he can only guess the worth of the horses form as well…
However, this does not mean that Mister No is a poor bet – far from it ! As I’ve said before, I think form reading is more an art than a science – and a horse like Mister No running in a race like tomorrow’s sets alarm bells ringing with me.
You have to ask yourself why his trainer would bring him over to this country to run in this race, incurring significant expense and effort. The horse clearly has ability – he’s won 14 of 33 career starts, including his last 3. When he has that kind of success in his native France, why campaign him elsewhere ? I can only conclude it is because the trainer thinks it’s got a decent chance !!
Of course, he could be completely wrong – and so could I – but that is the case more often than not, when you put up 20/1 shots !
This bet certainly has the potential to go spectacularly right – or spectacularly wrong -
but I’m prepared to take that gamble !!
1pt win Mister No 20/1
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