15th December - Selection rationale

I get the feeling that tomorrow is going to big a big day for me – and not just because it’s my birthday ! (which, co-incidentally, I share with Frankie Dettori – Happy Birthday Frankie, if you are reading this ;) )
Tomorrow is the first day that I have put up 2 ‘strong’ selections (I define ‘strong’ as any selection staked at greater than 1pt). Furthermore, Lucky Landing becomes the biggest single bet I’ve had – and with some justification IMO !
Let’s hope the day doesn't disappoint !!

Exeter 2:50

I guess it won’t have come as much of a surprise, to see me tipping Pocket Aces tomorrow. I had him as a 2 point tip on Saturday, before racing at Lingfield was abandoned.
I guess the only surprise might be that he’s become a 1.5pt tip – and that despite the fact it was possible to get 14/1 earlier this evening, when 11/1 was the best we could get on Saturday. Am I not being loyal to my value principals, you ask?!…
The reason for this apparent reduction in confidence, is simply the opposition. I wish that Pocket Aces had been able to take his chance on Saturday, because that race didn’t look as strong as tomorrow’s does.
I still feel he is worth a bet – but I am particularly worried about 2 or 3 of his opponents.
As you may recall, I tipped Pocket Aces when he made his seasonal debut at Plumpton in the middle of November. I viewed him as a slightly risky selection that day, but I need not have worried as he ran a really good race to finish fourth.
Interestingly, Penny Max, the horse who finished third in that race, won really well at Newbury this afternoon, to give that form a solid look.
I said after the Plumpton race, that of all the selections I’d tipped to that point, Pocket Aces was the one I would feel most comfortable giving the tag of ‘winner next time’ to – well, tomorrow is the next time.
I can’t see a particular issue with either the trip or ground (he has won previously on heavy) - and I particularly like to booking of top apprentice Tom Cannon, to take an extra 5lb off the horses back (which will help hugely on the heavy going). The handicapper has also lowered him 1lb from his last run, which won’t hinder either !
As I said, my biggest issue is with some of his rivals – and mainly because they are totally unexposed and therefore could be anything.
The most obvious in this category, are Midnight Tuesday and Great’s Autrenchene. The former is making his chasing debut for David Pipe and has decent hurdle form behind him, whilst the latter is making his UK debut for Venetia Williams, with decent French form behind him. If money came for either of them, I would be worried.
I would also be worried if money came for the JP McManus owned Valley View, with the new ‘wonder apprentice’ Maurice Linehan on board.
However, Pocket Aces is priced up to take into account these concerns. I could have put him up EW just in case one of these other animals proves to be thrown in – but I have a slight issue that Pocket Aces isn’t the most reliable himself, and therefore not absolutely sure to run his race. I don’t want to be losing double the points in that scenario (we are not talking a Buffalo Bob type character here !).
All in all, I think it worth a play that Pocket Aces runs to form and non of the other end up being handicap good things. If that proves to be the case, I think he will take some beating !

1.5pt win Pocket Aces 14/1


Towcester 1:40

As I’ve inferred in the write up above, there are two important things to consider when you are tipping a horse: firstly, the horse itself – but secondly, the opposition it faces.
I will be familiar with most of the horses I tip (I will know their strengths, weaknesses, preferences etc.) – I enjoy latching onto a particular horse and getting to understand it’s characteristics and quirks.
What is a lot more difficult to do, is to get a proper handle on all of the opponents it faces in a particular race. It would be just too time consuming to do this properly for every selection I make, so I cut corners…
I know roughly what level of opposition I would expect a selection to face – and I can spot the horses that could possibly be above that level.
It takes a long time to acquire this kind of innate skill – but it’s something I think you need if you are going to tip – or even just bet – effectively…
Some of you will recall that I tipped Lucky Landing the last time it ran. It was making it’s chasing debut that day, following a promising hurdle run at Carlisle.
I tipped it despite the fact it was a relatively risky selection – and quite a short price.
Disappointingly, it failed to complete the course that day, being pulled up 3 fences form home. Yet despite that, I thought it ran a cracking race !
It appeared simply not to get home – and I thought it would benefit from a drop back in trip (it was still going well until half a mile from home). Tomorrow, it runs over a 2m4f trip (half a mile less than last time) – and also has a tongue tie applied. The tongue tie suggests that maybe it had a breathing issue (as opposed to simply not staying) – but either way, I would now be very optimistic that it will last home tomorrow.
It has also been dropped 5lb in the handicap and drops from class 3 to class 4 company – and this is despite, as I said, me thinking it ran really well to a point, last time out.
That is the case for the horse – but it is the quality of the opposition, that makes this the strongest bet I have put up so far…
In short, I’m struggling to see a serious danger. If forced, I would probably nominate Silver Roque – he has potential but he still also has a lot to prove.
To summarise, provided Lucky Landing jumps round OK – and is not beset by a breathing problem, I think he will win - It really is as simple as that ! Furthermore, the race is being run at Towcester, so the chance of the jockey taking the wrong course are also pretty remote ! So long as he remembers to weigh in, I’m very optimistic of having a memorable birthday for the right reasons !!

3pt win Lucky Landing 11/2