22nd December - Selection rationale

I’ve got to admit to being a little irritated this evening…
When I looked at tomorrow’s declarations, at lunchtime today, one horse jumped out at me. That horse was Mallusk, who will be competing in the 2:40 at Hereford tomorrow afternoon.
The reason Mallusk jumped out at me is because he was due to run in the same Lingfield race that Pocket Aces was supposed to be running in on December 10th.
I had tipped Pocket Aces in that race – but was concerned about the danger posed by Mallusk. My concern grew greater when I saw him backed in from an opening 10/1 that day, to around 5/1 at the time of abandonment.
That was despite the fact that Mallusk hasn’t run this season. However, he won on his seasonal debut last season and evidently, someone thought he was capable of doing the same this time round…
My plan was to monitor the markets this afternoon, from when they are first put up by the early bird bookmakers. That can happen any time from 4:00 – but it was around 4:30 when B365 put up Mallusk as a 7/1 shot this evening. I thought that was a bit tight – and hoped 8/1 or 9/1 might subsequently be offered.
Next up where William Hill – and they offered an amazing 12/1! Needless to say, I availed myself of that price and sent a text to a couple of friends suggesting they did likewise.
I then opened up Twitter wrote out my normal tipping message and just before I tweeted, I checked the prices odds checker.
I couldn’t believe that the 12/1 had become 8/1 ! The official timing for the change was 8 minutes – but it honestly felt like 5 at the most. Needless to say, my enthusiasm for the tip was greatly diminished.
In truth, I think 8/1 is a reasonable price – I would say the current 6/1 is nearer the mark – but when you’ve just missed 12/1, it seems like a hollow bet.

I’m therefore left with the dilemma of wanting Mallusk to win because I’ve backed it – and wanting it to lose because I’ve not tipped it !
A lose:win situation maybe – or a win:lose situation - depending on your perspective ?!?!?!

Instead, I switched my attention to the novice handicap chase which is taking place at 1:10 on the same card.
Unfortunately, only 2 bookmakers priced up the race early, so I suspect that only a few of you will have been able to get the suggested price. But I guess a few is better than none…

Hereford 1:10

There is an element of guess work involved in this selection – but as you should know by now, I’m comfortable with that, provided the odds on offer reward appropriately…
Firstly, the negatives: Opera Og has never jumped a fence under rules before. Furthermore, he has only run 3 times over hurdles; being pulled up once and beaten an average of almost 40 lengths in the other 2 races !
However, as a consequence he has a rating of 87 –and whilst she may no longer house the stars she once did, few horses trained by Venetia Williams will have such a lowly rating.
It also seems highly significant that Opera Og is pitched straight into a handicap to make his chasing debut. He won the only P2P that he contested in his native Ireland and is bred for chasing.
The opposition look no great shakes – and if Opera Og does demonstrate an aptitude for chasing, he could be capable of outclassing his rivals.
As I said at the beginning, it all comes down to price – and at 13/2 in an 8 runner race, I feel he is worth a risk.

1pt win Opera Og 13/2