9th December - Selection rationale

It’s always great to see racing at Cheltenham and whilst initially I was a little disappointed with the fields on offer tomorrow, half an hours studying left me in a more positive frame of mind !!
In truth, there are at least 3 races which I wouldn’t bet in, as I think the favourite will win at prohibitively short odds – but that still left me 4 others to have a go at.
I’ve found 2 tips so far, with a third likely tomorrow morning. Hopefully at least one of them will deliver the goods…

Cheltenham 12:35

In slightly different circumstances, I could be really keen on Aather…
If he was still trained by Alan Fleming and had Timmy Murphy on board, he would be close to a maximum bet !
That is to take absolutely nothing away from his new trainer, David Arbuthnot, who is very competent indeed. However, we now can’t be sure that the horse will be primed for tomorrow – and that is key. The fact he is also ridden by a very inexperienced 10lb claimer further tempers enthusiasm and makes a potential maximum bet, a minimum bet !!
On the plus side, Aather is very well handicapped; has shown in the past that he can go well fresh and should still be progressing. On his seasonal debut last year, he finished fourth in a class 1 race at Ascot off a mark of 125.
With another year on his back and running on a mark 4lb lower in a class 3 race, if he were to run to the same level of form tomorrow, he would just about win.
On balance, I felt it worth a small risk at odds of 25/1. In truth though, I suspect he will be of more interest next time out…

0.5pt win Aather 25/1


Cheltenham 1:45

This race is interesting primarily because of the horses at the head of the market…
Mon Parrain and Fair along are talented animals – but you wouldn’t catch me backing either of them at 9/4 and 7/2 respectively !
There is a definite possibility that Mo Parrain has been seriously over-hyped. That certainly appeared to be the case when he ran so disappointingly in the Paddy Power gold cup. You would need a very forgiving nature to follow him in again off the same mark – and whilst I can be forgiving, it is far more difficult at odds of 9/4 !
Fair Along is a thoroughly admirable horse – but to say he is exposed is something of an understatement. He ran very well in the Hennessy – but you couldn’t be sure he would repeat that form – and even if he did, he is more likely to run on and be placed, that to actually win.
Mostly Bob is potentially interesting, but the solid option is Knockara Beau. He is a border-line top class animal who has some very good Cheltenham form. He finished fourth behind Midnight Chase in this very race last year (off a 6lb higher mark) and has also finished fourth in a Sun Alliance chase – as well as being runner up to Weird Al and, potential wonder horse, Grands Crus.
I think he would prefer slightly softer ground than he is likely to get – but hopefully he will be able to overcome that.
Otherwise, I think he is an extremely solid selection.

1.5pt win Knockara Beau 8/1