27th December - Selection rationale

It’s Coral Welsh National day tomorrow and I have to admit to going a little cold on the chances of Hey Big Spender…
The issues are 3 fold: firstly the ground; then the trip and finally the weight ! I think the combination are likely to prove too much for him (indeed, they would prove too much for most horses).
A few less pounds or less testing going and I think he would have a great chance – but as things stand, I suspect the winner will come from near the foot of the weights…
Le Beau Bai looks the most likely winner to me – though I would really fancy the chances of Our Island, if he had not been involved in that slog in the mud at Haydock, just 10 days ago. As De Fer also looks interesting – and I could give half a chance to Ballyfitz at a big price.
However, on balance, I think it is now more of a race to watch than bet in…

Instead, I have tips in the 2 preceding races. Both are trained by Venetia Williams – and hopefully one of them at least, will manage to deliver…

Chepstow 1:00

The logic for selecting Stow in this race isn’t that complicated…
He is proven over course, distance and ground – and has a decent racing weight (helped by a 5lb claimer).
He will need to win from a career high mark, but he was progressive last season and the suggestion from his run behind Mauricetheathlete, at the beginning of this month, is that the progression is continuing this season.
If that is the case, then I can see no good reason why he won’t go close tomorrow and 10/1 in an 8 runner field, looks very fair.

1pt win Stow 10/1


Chepstow 1:30

You better prepare yourself. Plein Pouvoir is a horse I’ll be putting up every time he runs in deep winter ground – until he wins !!
I’m actually optimistic that will be tomorrow – but I guess there is a chance it won’t be…!
The case for him tomorrow is actually very solid (as you would expect with a 2point win bet ).
He will adore the ground conditions; the trip is perfect; he is gradually running himself into form –and he has been dropped 2lb since his last run.
The only niggle in my mind, is that I would prefer him to be carrying a bigger weight against lesser opposition. That said, in tomorrow’s ground, you want to be lumping around as little as possible !
Hopefully, he will have sufficient class to see him through. In truth, I suspect that tomorrow, it will be less about class and more about resolution and staying power. I would be optimistic that Plein Pouvoir will have sufficient of those to give him a very good chance.

2pt win Plein Pouvoir 12/1