30th December - Selection rationale

Tomorrow is going to be quite a big day – assuming racing goes ahead at Haydock.
Furthermore, it might get even bigger, as there is an additional potential selection that I am monitoring, but am resisting putting it up until tomorrow morning (assuming I decide to put it up at all).

It’s funny how selections tend to come in batches: I’ve struggled to find a tip for the past 2 days and tomorrow, I could be giving out 4 !
Let’s hope that at least one of them manages to deliver…


Haydock 12:50

I’ve been a big fan of James Ewart for a number of years now.
I was fortunate enough to latch on to him not long after he started training. He managed to send out a string of big priced winners – and I was on a fair few of them ;)
Alas, as is often the case, it didn’t take long for others to latch on to him – and the big priced winners dried up. However, he has continued to produce winners and I’ve continued to monitor his runners closely.
Bishops Heir has always been a horse that has threatened to do well for the Ewart stable. In fairness, he has already won a bumper and a couple of hurdle races, but it was over fences that he looked most likely to succeed.
Minor issues have meant that he has not been seen that much in public and his chasing debut at Kelso in November, was only the ninth outing of his career.
Despite an absence of almost 9 months and on ground that was probably a little too quick for him, he performed very creditably that day in finishing fifth, beaten just 13 lengths.
Next time out, he disappointed a little when coming in last of the 4 finishers at Hexham. However as a result of that run, his handicap rating was dropped by 5lbs. That means that he gets a racing weight of 11st 1lb tomorrow – which should be fine in the conditions.
One of the obvious dangers tomorrow, Carrickboy, has a weight of 11st12lb to overcome – plus almost a year’s absence from the track. It will be a fine performance if he is able to over-come that double handicap.
Consequently, Mr Chippy looks the horse to beat – though in fairness, it is difficult to rule out any of the field, with absolute confidence.
Still, there are only 6 runners, so odds of 7/1 looked quite generous on a horse whom I believe has a better than average chance.

1pt win Bishops Heir 7/1


Haydock 2:30

As I was saying, I’m quite a fan of James Ewart…
Captain Americo is a horse of his, whom I know extremely well. I actually backed him a couple of times over hurdles, when he was trained by Andy Turnell.
He was pretty decent then – but improved for the switch to the Ewart stable.
That said, I still feel that he is yet to fulfil his potential. I’m sure this horse has the ability to be rated around 140. Off 124 tomorrow, he should therefore have a very good chance.
That said, he has run off a mark of 125 in his last 3 runs and not been successful – so something different needs to happen tomorrow…
I’m hopeful that the difference will be the application of blinkers. Apparently they have really woken up Captain Americo at home – and assuming they have the same effect on the track, he can maybe start to fulfil his potential.
Although there are only 6 runners, as with the previous race, it is very difficult to absolutely discount any of them.
However, Captain Americo will be well suited by the gruelling conditions and if the blinkers do give him an extra spark, he should prove very difficult to beat.

1pt win Captain Americo 5/1


Taunton 3:30

I think Solitary Palm is a great bet tomorrow – but it has to be each-way…
I be really surprised if he’s not in the first 3 – but less so if either Mr Chow or Hopeful Start get the better of him.
That said, Hopeful Start will need to rediscover his form; and Solitary Palm is weighted to reverse recent form with Mr Chow.
Unfortunately, it is unlikely to be as simple as that: Hopeful Start has been performing well below what he is capable of and Mr Chow looked very progressive indeed, when he beat Solitary Palm on his chasing debut.
Still, Solitary Palm is the solid option. He is in the form of his life; well weighted and will handle the conditions.
Furthermore, outside the big 2, the opposition looks a bit limited (despite the number of runners). A few of the runners have potential to surpass anything they have shown so far – but you would be guessing as to which ones and by how much.
With the tongue tie re-applied and hopefully under a slightly more restrained ride than last time, I expect Solitary Palm to run a big race.
Whether that will be good enough to win, depends on how much his 2 main rivals have left up their sleeves !

1pt EW Solitary Palm 9/1





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