6th December - Selection rationale

There are a couple of relatively low grade NH meetings tomorrow, at Fontwell and Sedgefield. I spent a little time looking at the 4 handicaps that were priced up early and I’ve come up with a couple of selections.
Neither one is bomb-proof – but I think there is a bit of value in both, at the odds available this evening. I’ve not suggested a double, because I don’t really want to get into tipping those kind of bets. However, the best price on both horses was available with Ladbrokes, so I availed myself of a small accumulator on the two and I wouldn't put you off doing the same, if you are that way inclined…

Fontwell 2:40

Festival Dreams has already run well twice this season: first time up at Fontwell, where he went mighty close to landing a huge plunge; and last time out at Wincanton, where he ran very well in the race in which Wise Hawk (a TVB tip) was pipped by Swift Chap.
Although ultimately beaten quite a long way in the Wincanton race, Festival Dreams ran well until making a bad mistake at the third last, He even managed to briefly rally after that, but ran out of stamina.
It is possible that lack of stamina also caught him out on his first outing of the season, so it interesting that he has been dropped back 2 furlongs in trip tomorrow.
It is also interesting that Kielan Woods has been replaced in the saddle by Richard Johnson. I’m a big fan of Woods and his 5lb claim, so I don’t necessarily see the booking of Johnson as a positive. However, I suspect that Festival Dreams might be given a typically aggressive Jonhson ride, over this slightly shorter trip – and that could make things interesting..!
Whatever, on form, Festival Dreams should go close in this race (particularly as he has been dropped a pound since his last run) and if Johnson does adopt front running tactics on him, he could well have a lot of the field in trouble before the home straight.

0.5pt EW Festival Dreams 10/1


Fontwell 3:10

I get the feeling that Billy Murphy has been gradually running himself into form this season and on his third run back tomorrow, I think he could go close to winning.
He is certainly weighted to go very close based on a couple of pieces of form from last year. On his final outing of the campaign, he was nailed close home in 14 runner race, off a mark just a pound lower than tomorrow. Whilst in January, he finished fourth at Lingfield, behind one of tomorrow’s rivals, Hobb’s Dream. He was beaten just over 14 lengths that day but tomorrow is a massive 26lb better off ! The best part of a 2 stone turnaround, really should see a fully fit Billy Murphy taking care of Hobb’s Dream !!
Sir Winston could well be the main danger – provided his jumping holds up. However with conditions ideal, I think Billy Murphy should run a big race.

0.5pt EW Billy Murphy 10/1