Friday, 30 December 2011

30th December - Selection rationale (part 2)

It looks like I made a mistake not putting up Atouchbetweenacara last night.
He was 9/1 with 3 firms, with the price seemingly under no pressure.
However, the money has come for him (without my influence !) and he is best priced 8/1 this morning – and that appears to be going.
In truth, it is only a point difference, so I’ve got to keep it in perspective – but at a time when every point counts, it is still a little irritating…
As you will doubtless recall, I tipped Atouchbetweenacara when he last ran at Haydock earlier this month. That was on the back of a run at Chepstow, behind subsequent Welsh National winner, Le Beau Bai, which seemed to signal a return to form.
Whilst he didn’t run dreadfully at Haydock, he did disappoint. However the handicapper has reacted to that run by dropping him a massive 7lb – and against generally inferior opposition today, he has got to be worth another chance.
He is now running off a mark 10lb lower than at Chepstow – and that seems plain crazy, based on how he ran that day and the subsequent exploits of the race victor.
It is interesting to see that blinkers are applied to Atouchbetwenacra for the first time today – and he is dropped back in trip by 3 furlongs, to what is arguably a more suitable distance.
He is naturally an exuberant runner and I can see him running with real zest in the blinkers today. I would be happier if Santas Son wasn’t running as he also likes to get on with things.
Atouchbetweennacara doesn’t need to lead though – he should be prepared to just race prominently.
Provided he doesn’t do too much in the blinkers, I can see him going very close. Hopefully he will keep enough in reserve to get home, in what are likely to be desperate conditions…

1pt win Atouchbetweenacara 8/1

No comments:

Post a Comment