2nd December - Selection rationale

There are a couple of decent NH meetings tomorrow at Sandown and Exeter.
Sandown in particular, provides some relatively high quality action – but a distinct lack of runners, which makes finding betting opportunities tricky…
Despite that, I’ve come up with a couple of selections – and combined them in a double for good measure !

Exeter 1:30

Once I saw the declarations for this race, there was little doubt in my mind that I wanted to be with Incentivise.
The only issue is the price: 6/1 really is as low as I would be prepared to go (though I could see him shortening !). I was hoping for 8/1 – and even thought double figures a possibility ! In that scenario, he would have been a sizeable bet – but at the odds available, I’m only prepared to gamble a point…
Incentivise was a rapidly improving stayer last season, when he won 4 times and his handicap mark rose from 84 to 123 !
He made his seasonal debut in the race at Bangor, where I was keen on Nicto De Beauchene. I mentioned after the race that there were 3 eye-catchers: Buffalo Bob was one – and Incentivise was another…
He was probably the most obviously eye-catching, in the way he stayed on at the end of the race, over a trip that was likely to be too short. I’m actually a little surprised that the handicapper chose to drop him 2lbs for that run – but he did. He is also running over a more suitable trip tomorrow (4 miles) and should be fitter than he was last time out.
In short, I think he has solid credentials and is a worthy favourite in my book.
Apparently Paddy Power put him in at 7/1 (I’m starting to like their odds complier ;) ). Unfortunately, I had to leave the house at around 6:00 so I missed that price. I understand that one or two of you managed to get it though – which is good news. I’ll just have to content myself with the 6/1 (as will the ‘offical’ records !)…

1pt win Incentivise 6/1


Sandown 2:30

Quinz is a bit of a marginal call here – but the fact he could be backed in a 42/1 double with Incentivise at Ladbrokes, won me over !!

Firstly the positives: If Quinz is in the same form as he was when he won the RP chase over 3miles at Kempton last February, he’ll win ! That was a tremendous performance for a novice – one that suggested he might go to the very top.
It was also one that got him the highest handicap rating in tomorrow’s field – so the official handicapper also thinks he should win !!
However, there is a major negative, which is his performance on his seasonal debut, when he never jumped a twig and was pulled up. The good news is that was just too bad to be true, so if Philip Hobbs has sorted him out, I’m sure it can be ignored.
2 of his opponents stand out: Bostons Angel and Royal Charm. However, I think the trip (on the prevailing course and going) might be an issue for them both: I suspect Bostons Angel would prefer further, whilst it will test Royal Charm’s stamina to the full.
I couldn’t absolutely dismiss Benbane Head from calculations either, so as you can see, it’s a tricky contest !
Despite this, I think there is a bit of value in Quinz, in the hope that Philip Hobbs has sorted out whatever was ailing him last time – and the knowledge that tomorrow’s test will suit him better than it will his main rivals.

0.5pt win Quinz

0.5pt win double Incentivise/Quinz


Sandown 3:05

Just a brief mention for Satou here.
He was the third eye-catcher in the Nicto De Beauchene race at Bangor !
He has also been dropped 3 pounds in the handicap – and over a slightly shorter trip, I honestly think he will win tomorrow.
I wouldn’t put anyone off backing him, but 10/3 just isn’t my kind of price. Good luck if it’s yours…

Edit: 5/1 is much more like it ! It's an increase of over 50% on the best odds avaialble last night and makes Satou a 'value' bet !

1pt win Satou 5/1