14th December - Selection rationale

I had a bit of a dilemma at around 4:45 this evening…
As is normally the case, I had started working my way through the early bird races.
I was hoping to find something in the 12:50 race at Newbury – but after studying it for a few minutes, I came to the conclusion that the bookmakers had priced it up about right.
The only other race priced up at Newbury at the time, was the 3:05.
With only 6 runners, it wasn’t a race that particularly attracted me – but I figured I’d take a quick look.
3 horses caught my eye: Back bob Back, The Boss and Point West.
Back bob Back was 2/1 favourite – and Point West has fallen the last twice he has run (so you would have to be concerned that the priority tomorrow, is simply to get him round). So that just left The Boss.
By my reckoning, 3/1 would have been a fair price – and 4/1 or more, a potential tip. I was therefore staggered to see 6/1 with William Hill.
The dilemma I faced was whether I backed it myself and just ‘mentioned’ it on the blog (a bit like Midnight Haze last week) or whether I tweeted it as a tip.
I decided to tweet it – accepting that only a few of you were ever likely to be able to get the price. However, I figured that a few was better than non !
If it does win, I’ll credit the P&L with a reasonable figure – but I won’t worry too much about that until it actually wins !
So, the case for the horse…

Newbury 3:05

The Boss made it’s seasonal debut in the handicap chase won by Roalco De Farge on Hennessy day. That was a really competitive 15 runner, class 3 event and yet despite making his seasonal debut that day, The Boss went off an 11/2 shot.
He ran creditably as well, staying in contention until a couple of late blunders put paid to his chances – but looking as if the run would bring him on…
Tomorrow, with that run behind him, he is contesting a 6 runner class 4 event - off a 4lb lower mark – yet was available at a slightly bigger price ! Now maybe you can see why I was staggered by William Hill’s offer!!
Ofcourse, that doesn’t mean he will win – just that he was huge value at 6/1 (and even the 9/2 that his price was shortened to). Back bob Back remains a danger – as does Point West (if he jumps OK) – but if you get 6/1 on a horse that should really be 3/1, you’ve got to be very unlucky not to come out on top over a period of time…
That said, tomorrow is just another race, so mis-fortune is as likely as it was on Monday, when Otage De Brion finished a circuit early or on Friday, when Balthazars King took the wrong course.
Just because you’ve just thrown two sixes on a dice, doesn’t make you any less likely to throw a third one ! Let’s hope it’s a one this time tho ;)

2pt win The Boss 6/1


Bangor 1:10

I was half tempted to tip Incentivise in this race, at the 13/2 with Boylesports.
I tipped him last time out when he ran at Exeter. I fancied him quite strongly that day but he ran very disappointingly. The RP race reviewer speculated that the disappointing run was due to the ground not being soft enough for him – if that is the case, he must go close tomorrow, on softer ground.
Personally, I thought he struggled to handle the weight he was carrying – and he has an even bigger burden tomorrow.
He also has a few credible rivals to overcome, so on balance, I opted for a watching brief…