Just a few quick words on the races/horses that I was keeping an eye out on this afternoon:
Having been backed into 6/1 third favourite, Kayf Aramis ran a fair race at Exeter, without ever looking likely to win. In truth, he looked as if he needed the run – which is what I feared, but is not what the market seemed to be suggesting ! At times, it really isn’t easy to second guess!
Over at Bangor, Nicto De Beauchene ran a cracker to finish runner up in the 3 mile chase. I had read his fitness correctly and he was primed to run his heart out. He was most unfortunate to come up against a winner who was not easy to find by simply looking at the form book. He was relatively unexposed – but this was a decent contest and he won it well. Clearly this wasn’t a surprise to some, as he was backed into 5/1 favourite – a price which looked most unlikely last night.
Watching the race, I was very taken by the performance of at least 3 of the other runners. Spotlight in the RP wasn’t quite so impressed (which is good news !) – but I’ll certainly be looking out for all 3 horses next time they run (I’ll leave it to you to figure out which ones they were ;) ).
Finally, the 3:20 race at Exeter: the race in which the tip, Thunder Child, was supposed to run.
As you may recall, I high-lighted 4 unexposed horses whom I felt represented the main dangers to Thunder Child – though I was concerned about potential jumping frailties.
I was therefore amused (in a wry way !) to see 2 of them fall at the first fence; whilst the other 2 went on to fight out the finish with the eventual winner, The Donserelli. In truth, The Donserelli, should also have figured on my list of unexposed horses in the race – but I made the mistake of writing him off, as he hadn’t run for nearly 2 years.
I clearly didn’t learn the lesson from Magot De Grugy last Friday…!
Ludlow 2:00
Generally, the racing tomorrow is not as good as it was today – but the 3m chase taking place at Ludlow at 2:00 is a fair contest…
Most of the horses that I will tip, will either have a ‘sexy’ angle (such as new trainer, change in distance, interesting jockey booking etc.) that I don’t feel has been fully factored into the price – or they will be horses that I have watched perform and believe I’ve seen something which has not been picked up by the masses.
However, that is not the case with Backfromthecongo, whom I simply feel is a very solid selection – that for some reason, has been over-priced by the early bird bookmakers…
Backfromthecongo should be well suited by both tomorrows’ going and distance; he has good course form and has won comfortably off a mark just 2 pounds lower, in the last 12 months, He made a promising reappearance a fortnight ago, when he ran well at Haydock until lack of fitness seemed to take it’s toll. He also represents the Richard Lee yard, which is going very well at the moment.
In short, I can see a lot of positives in his profile and few negatives…
It is true that as a pretty well exposed 10 year old, he has few secrets – but he’s won 3 of his last 9 races, over the past 18 months, suggesting that he is far from regressive.
It is possible that there may be an improver in the race, who will have sufficient in hand to beat him – but I don’t see too many suspects for that role...
Gentleman Anshan and Cootehill are probably the most likely – but I’m happy to go with the solid selection – especially at odds of 16/1, when I would have priced him up in single figures !!
As a footnote, I have been intrigued to see that the price of Backfromthecongo remained at 16/1 for over 4 hours. This clearly means that TVB is not moving markets just yet – which is good to know !
1pt EW Backfromthecongo 16/1
No comments:
Post a Comment