4th November - Race review

Horse: Super Baby
Price Advised: 6/1
ISP: 6/1
BSP: 7.93
Position: Third

Super Baby ran a fair race this afternoon but ultimately wasn’t good enough.

In truth, I was a little concerned at the off, as his priced had drifted to 8 on BF.

I don’t mind backing horses that have drifted mid-morning. If they have been put in too short – which I felt was the case with Super Baby – then a drift is almost inevitable. Furthermore, it is also not uncommon for these kind of horses to drift further than they should – as people just follow the drift. However, this situation should be corrected prior to the off – and if it isn’t, it suggests there is another reason for the inflated odds…

In this case, I suspect it was people taking a view that Super Baby wouldn’t get home over the trip, in what was ultimately pretty soft ground – and they were proven right.

That said, he did run a game race from the front – and pre-race you would have struggled to pick the winner (particularly as it was trained by Ferdy Murphy, whose horses in general have seemed to be a quite a way off full fitness).

With regard to the 2 mentions from yesterday evening:

Mr Chow ran a really surprising race… I either expected him to win or to never be sighted. Bearing in mind how weak he was in the betting, I expected the latter.

However, he actually ran a very eye-catching race, given a quiet ride out the back before creeping into contention. Ultimately, he didn’t quite get there with his effort, but he still finished a close up fifth.

With less high-profile connections, I would have had him down as a major eye-catcher – but with the connections he’s got, the run won’t have gone unnoticed and he will be priced/backed accordingly next time.

Magot Du Grugy managed a gritty win his race. It is clear that nowadays, a near 2 year absence from the race course isn’t a major concern ! With the benefit of hindsight, it could be argued that I should have tipped him. However, there were 2 other well fancied horses in the race – plus a couple of unexposed types.

His SP of 3/1, was only slightly less than the 5/1 available last night, which subsequently had a hefty R4 applied to it.

At the end of the day, I think there was very little margin in the price. The fact he won is irrelevant (!) – I feel that I did the right thing not putting him up.