9th November - Selection rationale

When racing/betting is not the main priority in your life, it’s almost inevitable that you’ll miss the odd opportunity – and that was certainly the case this evening…

As some of you are aware, I spend my time juggling; looking after children; renovating my house and betting. That sequence also gives a fair indication of their respective priorities…

I spent this morning removing tiles from my bathroom wall; and this afternoon trying to trace the route of an overflow pipe (fitted in around watching the first 2 races from Huntingdon !). I then collected my little girl from school – caught up with the racing I’d missed whilst I was out and then, at around 4:30, started looking at tomorrow’s cards…

There are a couple of decent quality races: a hurdle at Exeter and a chase at Bangor. I was sure I would be able to find a bet in one – and I spent about half an hour on each trying – but I couldn’t…
There are just too many unknowns in both contests – and when the races were priced up (around 5:00) it merely confirmed that I wouldn’t have a bet in either race (for the record, Kayf Aramis would be my choice at Exeter and Nicto De Beauchene at Bangor – I guess either could become a bet if they drift in price tomorrow).

Having given up on those 2 races, I looked at the other early bird races – in particular the 3:20 at Exeter.
My eye was immediately drawn to Thunder Child, and I was delighted to see that he had been priced up at 12/1 by a couple of bookies and 10/1 by the other 2 who offered prices on the race.
Rather than tweet him as a tip at that point, I decided to wait and see if Paddy Power or Ladbrokes priced up the race.
However, my doorbell then rang and I spent most of the next hour talking to a man about a new shower.
When I returned to my PC, 12/1 with B365 had turned to 6/1 – and 9/1 with Boylesport was the best priced that remained. I tweeted the tip at that point – but I suspect it was too late for most of you.
Maybe a lesson learnt – but more likely an illustration of the reality of my life !!
Anyway, onto the logic behind the selection…


Exeter 3:20

I watched Thunder Child run with some promise in the Halden Gold cup (contested by Zaarito – my first early bird tip) last Tuesday.
The thing that struck me about him last week, was that despite it being his seasonal debut and him being the best part of 3 stone out of the weights, he was still in contention with the principals in that grade 1 chase, on the home turn.
He was quickly put in his place down the home straight – but that was to be expected. However, he seemed to run significantly above himself – and on his first outing the campaign.
Although 11 years old, he was in the form of his life last spring, rattling up a hatrick of victories at Taunton. Despite that, he is still only rated 97 over fences, which almost certainly gives him some room for manoeuvre.
The biggest issue with tomorrow’s race is that it contains at least 4 unexposed chasers, representing decent yards. All 4 could be significantly better than their current rating and I’ll be a little surprised if one of them (Back bob Back, Tastevin, Just Cloudy and Epee Celeste) doesn’t win the race.
That said, I will also be surprised if all 4 run above themselves (jumping inexperience being just one of the issues they have to overcome).
Consequently, I believe there is value backing Thunder Child to be placed (in the hope that some of the opposition don’t perform) – with the possibility that he could well be good enough to win if all of his unexposed opponents prove disappointing.
12/1 was certainly a value bet (3/1 to be placed); but I think there is still some mileage in the 9/1 that was available with Boylesports. 8/1 would probably be as low as I would go…