5th November - Selection rationale

There is some decent NH racing today – as you would expect for the first Saturday in November. However, there are still plenty of unknowns, primarily in terms of horses fitness, so it doesn’t make sense to go mad just yet. Therefore, just a couple of tips for the day; both seasonal debutants – but both hopefully capable of going well first time out…

Wincanton 3:20

When I first looked at this race last night, my eye was immediately drawn to Madison Du Berlais – or more accurately, his rating of 142…

This is a horse who won the Hennesey off a mark of 150 three seasons ago, prior to beating Denman and Exotic Dancer and mixing it with Kauto Star. Needless to say, if he is anywhere near that form today, he will dot up in this !

Clearly, he is in decline – but he is only 10 years old and I can’t help feel that the handicapper has been a little hasty in dropping his mark so significantly,.

This time last year, he went off a 16/1 shot for the Hennesey, running off a mark of 157. Just three runs later, he is running off a mark 15lb lower.

You have to assume that he simply wasn’t right last season, but if that was the case and David Pipe can coax him back to some kind of form, he will win this.

Simply, 16/1 is too big – and although I think he will win or bust, I’m putting him up EW for insurance reasons. I’ll be playing win only myself !!

0.5pt EW Madison Du Berlais 16/1

Sandown 3:30

Moleskin is the one that interests me in this race.

Three runs back, he ran a cracker over 3 miles at Kempton, finishing runner up to a progressive sort in Rear Gunner. His 2 subsequent runs were disappointing, but he gets to run off the same mark, 117, today.

There are some progressive rivals in today’s field, but he would be unlucky to bump into one as good as Rear Gunner (who also got a very good ride that day).

The season before last, Moleskin won on his seasonal debut, demonstrating his ability to go well fresh. He is also trained by Victor Dartnell, whose stable continue in excellent form.

All in all, a very sound bet at a decent price !

1pt win Moleskin 9/1