17th November - Selection rationale

Just before I let go of today’s results (!)…
There was an air of inevitability that one of the 3 horses I considered tipping today (Uffa Fox would never have been a tip because I didn’t think we could ever have got a ‘value’ price on him) was going to win…
I knew it this morning when I woke up – and half considered tweeting them as tips (all the prices were still available) but that seemed an inappropraite thing to do…
However, I did promise myself – and this was before any of the races were run – that from here on in, I’ll be tipping more horses…
As I’ve said previously, I’ve got a staking plan to handle how strongly I feel about a tip – but from now on, if I’m considering it as a tip, it will be a tip ! (though maybe just 0.5pt win).
My biggest issue is simply time. I struggle for time to study all of the races - and I struggle for time to handle the communication and do all the write ups. That said, no-one is making me do anything – and I can tweak the rules as I go along, so that is what I intend to do…!
In addition to more tips, there will be slightly shorter write ups.
In truth, I’ve no idea how many people are reading the write-ups – for all I know I could be writing things purely for my own amusement ! Whatever, it will save me a little time if I cut things down a bit, so that is what I plan to do…

Just the one tip for tomorrow then – and at the price on offer, it is fair to say it would have been a tip yesterday, never mind tomorrow !!


Wincanton 1:05

I always find it difficult on a day like tomorrow, when there are many possible races for me to find a horse in – but no compelling ones…
I followed lots of leads trying to find a tip for tomorrow and was drawn to this race by the presence of Festival Dreams, whom I was keen on the last time it ran.
However, on looking through the field, it was a different runner that caught my eye…

In truth, it was actually the last run of Wise Hawk that makes it interesting…
In that race, he travelled like a dream, and was cruising behind the leader and eventually winner My brother Sylvest, as he rounded the home turn.
Wise Hawk then emptied pretty quickly – and I think there are 3 possible reasons for this: firstly, he may have needed the run (it was 7 months since his previous outing); secondly, he may not have stayed the trip (he is racing over 2 furlongs shorter tomorrow); thirdly, his previous breathing issues may have recurred (he wasn’t wearing a tongue tie, though he had on his previous 3 outings).
If it was the last reason, then I would expect the tongue tie to have been re-fitted for tomorrow – but it hasn’t…
My educated guess is that he needed the run (he might even have been operated on during the close season to resolve the breathing issue – though this is pure speculation on my behalf).
If it was simply that he needed the run, then I can’t see how he can fail to go close tomorrow – as he will actually be running off a pound lower mark.
It is true that his last run was by far his best over hurdles – but, to balance that, he is still relatively lightly raced and clearly had some issues, so maybe things are just starting to come together for him.
Whatever, I think he is worth a small risk at very attractive odds –even though it is possible to make a case for quite a few of his opponents.
I will certainly be expecting him to travel well through the race tomorrow, the question is how much he will find up the home straight.
Here’s hoping it’s enough !!

0.5pt EW Wise Hawk 25/1