2nd November - Selection rationale

After the quality of Exeter today, it is back down to earth – or more specifically Chepstow – tomorrow.

In fairness, it’s not a bad card for a mid-week – but quality is a bit thin on the ground.

The most competitive – and arguably best – race of the day, is the handicap hurdle  at 3:30, a race priced up by the early bird bookies…

Chepstow 3:30

In truth, there is a fair amount guess work involved in this race – not least because only 2 of the runners have raced this season. However, that doesn’t mean that we can’t find a decent bet…

When fitness has to be taken on trust, it pays to stick with certain trainers. The reality is that some trainers are better at getting their horses fit after an absence –either because they have the gallops to support it or simply because that is the way they like to operate.

Nigel Twiston Davies has few peers in getting horses to run after an absence, so the fact that Bring on the Judge hasn’t run for 246 days, is of little concern.

Last season, he showed himself to be a reasonable novice hurdler, well suited by a trip and soft ground – and likely to improve with a bit of time.

In tomorrow’s race, he gets in with a very light weight, which on heavy going at Chepstow is a big plus.

The other 2 horses that catch the eye are Master Overseer and The Gossamer Yank – but they are both at the other end of the handicap.

The latter in particular, has almost certainly got the talent to win this – if fully tuned. However, he hasn’t run for over 2 years and this is likely to be a prep run for a chasing career. If he wins tomorrow, I suspect he will have to do so on the bridle.

Master Overseer is also likely to be using this a pipe-opener for a chasing campaign. He is more likely to be straight – but doesn’t seem to have a lot in hand of his handicap mark.

Nothing else particularly stands out, so at the prices, Bring on the Judge seems a fair bet.

0.5pt EW Bring on the Judge 12/1