I guess I could be accused of going a little crazy tomorrow – but some days, I think you just have to go for it. Hopefully I’ve chosen the right day to have a tilt at…!
As there are so many selections and because this is my third post of the day (!) I’ll keep the rationale for the selections relatively brief…
Newbury 1:30
Clearly there is a lot of guesswork involved in trying to solve this particular puzzle, but at the odds, I think it is worth taking a chance on Roalco De Farges.
He is quite lightly raced and progressed nicely last season to win a 15 runner handicap hurdle at Chepstow by 6 lengths.
Next time out, he was well fancied for a very competitive handicap hurdle at the Punchestown festival, but finished well back.
First time this season, he was equally well fancied for the Tote Silver trophy but again made little impression.
The weight of money on both occasions, in such valuable races, suggest that he is a horse of significant ability
Connections have chosen to put him straight into a handicap for his chasing debut – but with 3 runs in Points under his belt, jumping hopefully won’t be an issue.
At 20/1, I think he is worth a small speculative play.
0.5pt win Roalco De Farges 20/1
Newbury 2:05
If Empire Levant is in the same form he was when hacking up at Newbury on Thursday, then he will clearly take some beating.
However, that was only 2 days ago, in a less competitive race, so I think he is worth taking on…
There are a few options, but I think Rebel Dancer is the most sound one. He finished second in this race last year off the same mark, before falling in the tote gold trophy, when still in with every chance.
He didn’t show a great deal in 3 runs on the flat over the summer, but showed a lot more when fourth at Wetherby a fortnight ago.
If he has come on for that run, I think he will go very well over a course and distance that clearly suits him.
0.5pt EW Rebel Dancer 16/1
Newbury 3:10
If it wasn’t the Hennessy, I would be pretty confident I’d nailed this race !
However, it is – and there has to be a chance that one or two of the totally unexposed horses will make massive improvement on anything they’ve done before, so I have to tread carefully…
From a handicapping point of view, I think I’ve picked out the 2 best handicapped horses in Carruthers and Planet of Sound.
If the ground was heavy, I would only be on Carruthers – and big time – but it’s not and that ultimately could prove to be his undoing.
That said, I’ll be amazed if he doesn’t run a huge race as I simply can’t see why he’s got the lenient rating he has. He finished fourth in Imperial Commanders monumental Gold Cup of a couple of seasons ago and to my mind, hasn’t really gone backwards since then. Whilst it’s true that not all of his subsequent performances have matched that one, he has rarely had ideal conditions and had still continually performed with credit.
Off a mark of 146, I think he’ll take some catching…
Planet of Sound won a grade 1 chase at Punchestown 18months ago and has only competed in 2 grade 1 chases since that point. Yet despite this, he has a rating of 158 – which is far from that of a grade 1 performer.
He loves quick ground and has 3 wins and a second from 4 runs at Newbury. He has also shown himself quite capable of running after a long break.
The long break this time came about because he was having breathing difficulties – but if the problem has been resolved, he must go very close.
For the really brave amongst you, a small forecast on the 2 wouldn’t be the worst investment ever made…
0.5pt EW Carruthers 20/1
1pt win Planet of Sound 14/1
Newbury 3:45
If I had missed out one of the tips tomorrow, it would have been this one – but then you all know what would have happened !
I felt it was worth investing 0.5pt as a form of insurance !!
The case for Persian Gates is built primarily around his last run at Wetherby, where he pulled like crazy but was still in the process of giving Fistral Beach a real fight, when he came down at the second last.
Tomorrow, he is 6lb better off with Fistral Beach – but is twice the price! Now that has to be value !!
In fairness, Fistral Beach may well come on for the outing, which was his first of the campaign, but Persian Gates is a very progressive sort and if he can be settled a bit better, I would be optimistic that he could get the better of Fistral Beach.
Of course he has another 13 rivals to concern himself with – but I don’t think the race is as competitive as the numbers suggest and think Persian Gates is a fair bet at the price.
0.5pt win Persian Gates 10/1
Newcastle 3:30
In a way, I hate races like this !!
I was absolutely sure in my own mind that I was going to go in heavy on Hey Big Spender the next time he ran – so what do connections do ? Find a really competitive 8 runner chase, where at least half the field are of significant interest (or would be if they weren’t facing Hey Big Spender !).
The fact is, I think Hey Big Spender is a bit better than your average handicapper. I think he is a borderline gold cup horse – maybe not good enough to ever win it – but certainly good enough to compete at that level.
He is also big enough to take any weight he is asked to carry – so I don’t think that the 11st12lb burden he has tomorrow should prove troublesome.
Generally, when horses of his calibre compete in average handicaps, with conditions to suit, they win.
He certainly made a lasting impression on me when he won an average handicap at Warwick off the same mark last February – and he ran very well on his debut at Cheltenham a fortnight ago, when presumably needing the run.
If that race has brought him on, I think he will take some beating tomorrow…
1.5pt win Hey Big Spender 11/2
I intend to put up one more selection for tomorrow – but I think I will wait until the morning to do that. The write up will follow shortly after…
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