Before I get onto explaining the logic behind tomorrow’s selections, a few words on the performances of today’s mentions…
If I had tipped today, it would most likely have been Good Order.
However, as I mentioned last night, I have a bit of an issue tipping at odds of 5/1 or less. Clearly this is silly as a horse can still represent value at 5/1 (it could represent value at 1/5 !).
When there are only 6 runners in a race, 5/1 is roughly the same as 10/1 when there are 11 runners in the race (ie. the horse is deemed to have an ‘average’ chance of winning).
I do try to look at things that way, but I guess there is less margin for error when you are operating at lower odds.
Anyway, I digress !!
Good Order was well backed before the off, and his returned SP was 5/2.
In the race, he jumped pretty well and travelled nicely – but he was always playing catch up with the leader and eventual winner, Frontier Spirit.
Non the less, it was a fair performance from Good Order, who given my time again would have been a 1pt win tip. So we can kind of consider ourselves lucky to have saved a point on the race !!
Pin D’estruval was pulled out of the handicap chase at Ludlow. What made his defection interesting was that having been available at 13/2 last night, he was a best priced 7/2 when he came out.
I don’t know the reason behind his non-participation, but if connections were a bit galled at only being able to get 7/2 on a horse available at almost double those odds the night before, I would have some sympathy !
With him no longer in the race, Blindspin became a much more interesting proposition. If his SP of 7/1 had been available last night, he would have been a bet – and maybe more than just a point !
He actually ran very well, tracking the early leader, favourite Wessex King. When that one started to struggle down the back straight, Blindspin took up the running and looked the most likely winner. However, he was collared at the second last, by Wester Ross, who went on to win easily.
Namarama ran a fair race to finish fourth at Kempton. He moved nicely down the back straight but didn’t find much when asked for his effort after the home turn.
It was a long way to travel for connections, for a relatively flat effort…
So onto tomorrow’s racing.
There is a reasonable meeting at Lingfield and a second NH meeting at Sedgefield (which doesn’t particularly inspire me !).
Generally, it is interesting to see how many more races at being priced up the night before. 12 months ago, on a day like tomorrow, I’m sure there would only have been 2 or 3 (generally by B365).
Tomorrow, there are 4 at Lingfield alone – and a further 3 at Sedgefield.
I guess this is because the bookmakers want as much information as possible before they start taking significant money, in the morning.
12 months ago, Betfair would have provided them with a lot more information than it does now, with virtually no liquidity. Times change – and we need to change our approach accordingly…
I got chance to look at the Ligfield races before they were priced up, so I knew in advance which horses I was interested in.
I always prefer to be in this position – though it’s not always practical for me to achieve.
Hopefully, it will pay divides tomorrow…
Lingfield 2:50
I may have had some time in advance to study the race but Ray Diamond was always going to be the horse I would be interested in…
I thought he ran very eye-catchingly last time, suggesting to me that he was ready to go close on his next run.
I was kind of hoping that his performance might have gone unnoticed and that I might get a double figure price on him – but it was not to be… I guess when you book AP McCoy to ride a horse for the first time, you are likely to draw attention to it !
I actually think 11/2 is tight based on what the horse has achieved – but I doubt he will drift much with the champion on board.
McCoy should be the perfect partner for Ray Diamond, who is very game and likes to race prominently.
I’ll be really surprised if he doesn’t run a big race – and would see him as a near certainty to be placed.
I’ve put him up win only, simply because of the price and the fact I use EW as an insurance. I also believe that Ray Diamond is quite capable of wining the race – and hopefully he will prove the point tomorrow !
1pt win Ray Diamond 11/2
Lingfield 3:20
Near the Water is more my kind of horse – or at least, more my kind of price !
Put simply, the 20/1 on offer was around double the odds I would have priced him up at.
He has got perfect course form (2 from 2) putting up his 2 best career performances at the track; He made a promising re-appearance in a decent hurdle race at Fontwell a couple of weeks ago (coincidently, the same race that Ray Diamond ran in) – which is exactly what he did last season before winning second time out; He has also got the services of promising apprentice Brendan Powell. Those of you as old as me will remember Brendan’s father being a very decent NH jockey. If his son is half as good, his 7lb allowance won’t last long.
On the negative side, the horse seems to be inconsistent and is not sure to get the 3 mile trip. His wins have been over 2 miles – but he has win his races by staying on so I’m optimistic the trip won’t be an issue.
Unlike Ray Diamond, who I think is a great EW bet, I think Near the Water will either win or finish no-where. I’ve put him up EW simply because, at 20/1 I would hate him to be pipped and to get no return on the race.
Also, you have to see Wide Receiver as a big danger. When he won first time out this season. It was suggested that he had 40lb in hand. Tomorrow he runs off a mark 34lb higher – so he could still have 6lb to play with ! I’m not saying he has – but I do think he could still be ahead of the handicapper…
0.5pt EW Near the Water 20/1
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