2nd November - Race review

Before reviewing today’s race, just a few comments on the market movements that took place yesterday evening…

I tweeted the tip at around 6:00pm. At that point, B365, WH & VC had all priced up the race (BS followed shortly after).

By my reckoning, Bring on the Judge should have been around an 8/1 shot – which is why I was happy to tip him at the 12/1 offered by B365.

Over the next couple of hours, I was amazed to see the price crumple to a best of 6/1.

Bearing in mind I had tipped the horse early and I’ve no idea who is backing my tips or with how much, I sent a tweet out this morning trying to gauge whether I had been responsible for the price crash !

I got replies from a couple of guys, saying they had backed the horse at 12/1 – and I’m aware of 3 or 4 others (myself included !).

Therefore, in total, it would seem that about half a dozen people backed the horse on my recommendation with a total stake of around £50.
I think it is fair to assume that this didn’t cause the price of the horse to crash !

This is backed up by the fact that the price kept on contracting – and was virtually as low at the off as it had ever been. Clearly, someone thought it was a good bet – and a very good bet at the price available last night !
This evidently means that I’m not moving markets - just yet at least. Though the possibility is something I’m wary of ;) 

So, onto the horse’s performance…

Horse: Bring on the Judge
Price Advised: 12/1
ISP: 9/2
BSP: 6.03
Position: Unplaced

Clearly the most notable thing about it’s performance, was the mistake it made at the first hurdle in the home straight. It was a mistake that almost dislodged jockey Sam Twiston Davies – and although he eventually recovered his balance, any chance of victory went with it.

To be honest, I think any chance of victory was already pretty remote by that point. The horse had pulled for the first half of the race – and few horses have sufficient in hand of their rivals to do that, in heavy ground at Chepstow and come home in front.

I have watched a few videos of the horse’s previous performances and he has never pulled in his races before, so I’ve no idea why he did today. I guess he was running fresh after his absence, so maybe he will settle better –and run better – next time.

The finish of the race was fought out by the other 2 horses I mentioned in last night’s preview – with the winner returning at a relatively generous 13/2 (a fair bit bigger than he was available when the race was priced up last night).