A couple of tips for this afternoon.
I was interested in them both last night, but didn’t feel compelled to put them up at the prices on offer. Both have drifted a little this morning and whilst neither is a stuning bet, I think there is a bit of value in both.
Frontier Dancer is only available at 6/1 with Boylesport and Sporting Bet. I wouldn’t class either of these as one of the ‘big bookmakers’ – but you can beat those odds on Betfair, with reasonable liquidity – and the horse is drifting in general, so I don’t think the price will be a problem.
Onto the reasons for the tips then...
Doncaster 2:35
Otage De Brion was a fair novice chaser for Charlie Longsdon, the season before last. He managed to win a couple of reasonable novice chases and got himself a handicap mark of 142.
Last season, he was under the care of Nigel Twiston Davies but everything went pear shaped for him - with 2 falls and a pulled up in his 4 outings…
Presumably in an attempt to sort him out, he was then transferred to his owner, Robert Waley Cohen and given a spell hunter chasing before coming back to compete under rules this autumn.
Today will be is fourth run under rules this term and his performances have improved with each run. Interestingly, his handicap mark has also dropped (by 17lb over the 4 runs).
So today, he gets to run off his lowest every handicap mark (117) on the back of his best run for some time (3rd at Bangor, having raced prominently and travelled well).
Unfortunately, he is running in quite a competitive race and so might find one or two improvers. That said, I think Otage De Brion will run his race, which should be good enough to place – and may even be good enough to win !!
0.5pt EW Otage De Brion 16/1
Newbury 2:45
As regularly reader(s) will recall, Frontier Dancer was the first winning tip given on this blog – and is still responsible in the main, for it remaining in profit !!
He only won the race at Ffos Las by a short head – but I think he was value for much more than that…
He cruised through the race and looked sure to hack up having jumped the second last. However, he made a mess of the last and eventually only just hung on.
As a result, the handicapper has only been able to raise him 3lb – but I believe he was value for more than that. Today, he is also without the 3lb claim of the jockey who rode him at Ffos Las.
On the other hand, 2 seasons back, he was competitive off a mark 10lb higher than he is running off today, so if Lawney Hill has him back to that level of form, it can be argued that he is still very well handicapped.
I’m prepared to gamble that is the case – only horses with plenty in hand travel as he did at Ffos Las – despite his victory that day, I suspect Lawney had left a bit to work on…
The race doesn’t look massively competitive to me and although I thought the 5/1 last night was fair, I’m happier with the 6/1 available this morning…
1pt win Frontier Dancer 6/1
Newbury 3:15
Just a quick mention for this race, where 2 of my recent tips, Rileyev and Oh Crick, cross swords…
Of the 2, I would prefer the chances of Rileyev, who I think has now run himself into form. However a price of 11/4 makes limited appeal.
I did consider tipping Oh Crick, but if I’m honest, I think he wants a couple more runs (probably on winter ground) to get a few more pounds off his rating.
There is a chance he will come good today but I think it is much more likely that he will find his form in the spring, by which time his rating should be down to a workable level in the low 130s…
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