1st December - Selection rationale

The quality of the racing is slightly improved tomorrow…
There are 3 class 3 races (amazingly, I think these are the 3 highest class NH races to be run so far this week !) and I have a tip in each !!
Hopefully, at least one of them will ensure that December gets off to a decent start…

Leicester 2:00

I’m sure that a few of you will recall me tipping Fiendish Flame when he ran a fortnight ago.
My enthusiasm for him that day, was based on the fact that he was a very well handicapped horse who might get an uncontested lead.
Well, he led that day – but proceeded to jump alarmingly to his right at every hurdle – not ideal on a left handed track !
Tomorrow, connections have shown sense and chosen to run him right handed. Once again, he is likely to get an uncontested lead – and he is now also 3lb lower.
His antics at Haydock detracted from the fact that he actually ran a really good race. He was beaten just over 20 lengths – but he must have given away far more than that with his erratic jumping.
If the problem with his jumping has been improved (I doubt it will have been fully cured) – I think he will be very hard to beat tomorrow. In fact, I will be surprised if any of his opponents, with the exception of Kells Belle, can get with a dozen lengths of him !
In a way it is a shame that Kells Belle is in the race. She has the potential to be very good – and I can understand why she is odds on. However, horses like her are often over-rated and if she is – I think that an on-form Fiendish will beat her !
As it is, she is making the book, as there is no way Fiendish Flame would be 11/1 without her in the race !
I did think long and hard about the best way to stake the race.
If Fiendish jumps OK, I think he will win. The only horse I can possibly see beating him in that situation is Kells Belle.
I thought about a straight 3pt win (I think he is just about the strongest tip I have given so far !): I also thought about EW – but that doesn’t really make sense in these particular circumstances. So instead, I went for most of the stake on win only, with a ‘saver’ on a straight forecast for Kells Belle to beat Fiendish.
I hope the logic behind the staking makes sense !

2.5pt win Fiendish Flame 11/1
0.5pt SF Kells Belle to beat Fiendish Flame


Market Rasen 2:25

There is quite a lot of speculation with Lucky Landing for an 11/2 shot – but I simply couldn’t let him go untipped…!
The biggest issue is that he has never jumped a fence under rules – but as you are no doubt starting to realise, I’ve got a bit of a soft spot for horses who make their chasing debuts in handicaps, particularly if they have some decent PTP form behind them…
Lucky Landing finished placed in a couple of Irish points – but it is his debut run in a NH flat race just over a year ago, that really takes the eye.
He won that race at Uttoxeter, beating Poole Master, who himself won at Uttoxeter this afternoon.
Furthermore, he won that day, despite the test being wholly inadequate for him. That victory evidently took a lot out of the horse (he is still only 5) and the remainder of last season was a disappointment.
However, he showed much more promise on his seasonal debut 3 weeks ago, when staying on to take third place in a novice hurdle at Carlisle.
He is upped in trip by a mile tomorrow – and put over fences. This should provide him with a much more appropriate test.
He is the only runner that Donald McCain has at the Lincolnshire course – and the only ride of the day for stable jockey Jason Maguire.
Here’s hoping they haven’t gone all that way for no reward…

1pt win Lucky Landing 11/2


Wincanton 2:45

I think Tarkari has a fair chance in this handicap hurdle.
It’s the lowest class hurdle race that he has run in since he came to this country (he was previously trained in Ireland by Willie Mullins).
Despite the fact he has never won a race on these shores, he has performed with credit on more than one occasion.
Most recently, in September, when he finished fifth in a handicap hurdle at Market Rasen. He had finished second in the same race a year earlier on his first run in the UK.
Tomorrow he gets to run off a mark 5lb lower than his last Market Rasen run and that should be sufficient to make him competitive.
His is not a certainty by any stretch of the imagination, but I could see him running a very good race at decent odds, in what looks be a trappy race.

0.5pt win Tarkari 16/1