16th November - Update

The second blank day on the trot – and whilst I did consider a couple of options for tips, there is just too much guesswork involved…

Non of today’s mentions covered themselves with glory – which, in a way, I was quite pleased about !
That said, I found interest in all 3 races – particularly in the runs of the 2 horses which I have been keeping an eye on…

Although superficially disappointing, I won’t be removing either Caulfields Venture or Realisation from my list of horses to follow.
Both ran today, as if in need of a much stiffer test of stamina than they were ever going to get in small fields on sharp tracks.
There will be other days for both of them this season.

In the 2:30 race at Folkestone, I managed to predict the market with my normal unerring accuracy ;)
Having been 5/1 and 7/1 respectively last night, Set in her Ways and Edgefour managed to go off 2/1 fav and 7/2 !
If I wasn’t interested in either at last nights prices, I certainly wasn’t going to be interested at half the odds !
As it turned out, both ran disappointingly – so the race was one well dodged…


On to tomorrow then, where I got closer to tipping than I had done yesterday…

Hexham 1:10

It is the outsider of the field, Signalman, who interests me most in this race…
He’s run 3 times over fences and put in a reasonable performance each time. He was runner up in a couple of small field novice chases last season – and although he finished last on his seasonal debut, he did try to chase Notus De La Tour, who is potentially a very decent novice. He makes his handicap debut tomorrow and looks fairly handicapped off a mark of 120.
The issue I have with the race however, is that it is very difficult to get a proper handle on it. There are just too many unknowns – and whilst I’m quite happy to side with the outsider in such a situation, I can’t quite take the next step and make him a tip…

Warwick 1:00

Just a quick mention for Uffa Fox.
In the early part of his career, he threatened to be much better than a 93 rated animal. However, he became very disappointing until his final run, just over a year ago, when he won at Wincanton.
Unfortunately, he injured himself winning that contest and has been off the course since.
However, if he is fit and well, then he should be up to winning a race such as tomorrow’s. As was the case with last year’s victory, the market will doubtless say whether he is primed to run a big race.

Warwick 1:30

I got very close to a split stake tip in this race.
The 2 horses I was targeting were Lexicon Lad and Llama Farmer.
I have a slight preference for the former – however he is making his fencing debut tomorrow, so has to be a risky proposition.
That said, I suspect he has enough natural ability to go close in a race such as this, if his jumping is up to it...
Llama Farmer is becoming a bit of an enigma.
He looked very good when winning a novice hurdle at Haydock around 18 months ago.
However, since that point it has been disappointment after disappointment.
Tomorrow he runs off a mark of 105 – having been originally allocated a mark of 123 over fences.
It’s dangerous to keep making excuses for a horse like him – but I can’t help feel he will come good again, one day. I’m now just hoping that day isn’t tomorrow !!