4th November - Selection rationale

A first today; a tip during daylight hours !!

As I mentioned in my introduction, whilst the intention is for most of the tips to be tweeted early evening, when the bookmakers price up the following day’s races, this will not always be the case…

Last night, the 1:40 at Hexham was priced up by B365, so I had a quick look at it.

To my mind, the most likely winner of the race, was Super Baby. However, B365 had him in as 3/1 joint favourite and whilst there can be value betting at those kind of odds, I didn’t feel there was much margin at that price.

On returning home this morning however, I see he is now available at 6/1 in a couple of places – 11/2 elsewhere, which is much more like it in a 7 runner race...

In truth, his claims are not rock solid. It is true that he is very well handicapped on some old form – but his form did tail off quite markedly last season.

However, on his return this season, he ran pretty well over hurdles – and I would certainly expect that run to bring him on. If that is the case, then he will be well handicapped off a mark of 97.

It is difficult to be too dogmatic about the opposition. Most of them have shown little – however, a couple of them have scope to progress.

The most notable of these is Twice Lucky, who really could be better than his mark and has had an outing this season to blow away any cobwebs.
That said, I see Super Baby as the more solid option as in past, he has proved himself up to tasks more demanding than today’s.

I have a slight concern over the trip (2m4f) – particularly if the ground gets very soft – but I think it is factored into the price.

A small wager then, but hopefully one that will prove worthwhile.

1pt win Super Baby 6/1