7th November - Selection rationale

As I mentioned in my tweet, I wasn’t planning to tip today…
However, Cloonawillin Lady caught my eye last night, and the more I looked at her, the more I started to see a case for her.
Of course, I could be barking up completely the wrong tree (it has been known !) – but I’m prepaid to risk 0.5pt at 16/1, to find out…

The way I tend to pick out horses, is that on a daily basis, I get a series of notifications, alerting me to potentially interesting situations (with horses, trainers and jockeys).
I have an initial look at each notification and dismiss most of them – however, a few warrant further investigation – and one or two of those sometimes end up as bets …

Cloonawillin Lady came to my attention today because she is being ridden by crack apprentice Kielan Woods. Woods is attached to Charlie Longsdon’s yard in the Cotswolds and only needs one more winner to ride out his 7lb claim (he will then be able to claim 5lb).
Cloonawillin Lady is his only ride of the day – and he has travelled up to Carlisle for it…
Now I don’t profess to be an expert on the life and times of Keilan Woods – for all I know, he may have friends or relations in the Carlisle area and the ride fits in nicely with a trip to see them – but if he doesn’t, it’s a long way to go for one ride. Particularly a ride that might be significant to his claim…

Looking at the form of Cloonawillin Lady, it wasn’t easy to initially make a case for her – but given enough time, I can invariably find an angle ;)

Following 10 runs in points (one of which was successful – but more of that shortly), Cloonawillin Lady made her debut under rules at Newcastle, where she finished second to the 115 rated Si Bien, admittedly getting a stone – but over an inadequate trip of 2 miles.
The form has lots of holes in it – but at face value, suggests she might have run to a rating of around 100…
Looking at her PTP win in Ireland, at level weights, she comfortably beat a horse called Evella – who is now rated 120.
I’m not claiming that either of these pieces of form are rock solid – but both give a glimmer of hope that Cloonawillin Lady has ability significantly beyond her current mark of 85.
Following her debut run against Si Bien, Cloonawillin Lady ran a couple of moderate races – finishing well back on both occasions. However, these 2 runs saw her allocated a mark of 89.
In her final run of last year, she made her debut in a half reasonable chase and although outsider of a field of 4, she was a not unfancied 4/1 shot. Unfortunately, she bled that day, so that run has to be ignored.
First time out this season, off a rating of 87, she was well backed for a fair 2m4f chase. She went off 6/1 second favourite – somewhat surprising given her earlier form – unless connections knew she was capable of better…
Again she was disappointing – but she comes from a relatively small yard and they maybe struggle to get horses fully wound up first time out…

On to today: she is running over a more suitable 3m2f trip; off a 2lb lower mark – and with the debut run under her belt. She is 15lb better off with Do It for Dalkey, who just edged her for favouritsm in her previous race - but did win it comfortably…

I’ve gone on a bit here (!), so you can get some idea of the logic I use when making a selection.
I acknowledge there is plenty of speculation involved – but as I hope the case above demonstrates, I think we are looking at a horse who could possibly have a decent chance of winning.
Obviously, as I said at the beginning ,I could have completely mis-read everything and she could well be a mare of limited ability, who will struggle to win another race.
but at 16/1, against today’s opposition, I think she is worth a small play !


0.5pt win Cloonawillin Lady 16/1