12th November - Selection rationale

I thought long and hard before putting up Oseau De Nuit as a tip today…
I considered putting him up yesterday evening – but figured I would sleep on it overnight !
I know it’s only 0.5pt EW – but that isn’t the point. I’m trying to do this tipping properly – and Oiseau De Nuit is a marginal call.
However, I have a staking plan to help with that – and if he were to win, or even place, at such big odds, without me putting him up, it would be a bit of a sickener…
So, onto the case for the horse today:

In one respect, I can understand why he has been priced up art 40/1 – but on the other hand, I think it is a serious under-estimation of his ability…
In terms of the negative’s: the trip is a worry; he’s got a 10lb claimer on his back, whom I don’t think has ever ridden a winner under rules (!); and at 9 years of age, he is quite exposed..
However, on the plus side: he won the Grand Annual at last year’s festival by 3 and a half lengths off a mark just 8lb lower than today and the 10lb claimer will offset 3lb of that additional 8lb; he then followed up by running a stormer at Aintree off a mark a 1lb higher than today and ran an equally good race on his seasonal debut in the Halden Gold cup; he’s always looked like 2m4f would be within his compass; The Tizzard stable have hit form this week after a few weeks in the doldrums.
Like I said, it’s a tricky balancing act – and at 20/1, I wouldn’t be playing – but at 40/1…
Obviously, in a race like this, dangers abound (and that was part of the reason I was disinclined to tip in it).
If Mon Parrain is the horse connections seem to think he is, he could bolt up: Wishful Thinking is a very useful, improving horse. I was also personally drawn to both Loosen my Load and Noble Alan - and big runs by either wouldn’t surprise me..
However, this blog is all about ‘value’ – and there is little doubt in my mind, that the best value in the race lies with the relatively unconsidered Oiseau De Nuit…

0.5pt EW Oiseau De Nuit 40/1

Elsewhere on another very good card, I like the look of Galaxy Rock under AP in the staying chase at 1:55 and Dorset Square, who is representing Willie Mullins in the staying hurdle at 3:10.
I was half tempted to put up the latter as a tip – but I chose not to. I hope that decision doesn’t come back to haunt me…!