24th November - Selection rationale

Tomorrow provides a test to see who has been paying attention over the past few weeks !
There are 2 horses running tomorrow, who have been directly or indirectly referred to, in earlier blog posts…

The horse that has been previously referred to directly is Thunder Child, who is running in the 3:30 race at Taunton.
Those of you with good memories will recall that he was put up at a tip when he was due to run at Exeter on the 9th of this month.
He was very well backed that day – but pulled out of the race (maybe because of the ground). I said to look out for him next time, when hopefully he would get decent ground – and a few less unexposed sorts to run against…
Well, he’s got the ground – but I’m not liking the look of the opposition !
- Sarika was desperately unlucky not to win last time at Ludlow, on his British debut. He gets to race off the same mark tomorrow….
- Rivermouth travelled like a dream on his seasonal debut at Huntingdon before not finding quite as much as expected. He has blinkers applied tomorrow.
- Mr Chow is thrown into a handicap for his chasing debut off a very attractive mark, having already had a pipe opener over hurdles…
All 3 could literally be anything - and even at 15/2, I can’t bring myself to put Thunder Child up as a tip. Even if he does come good, I won’t be cursing – honestly !!

The horse referred to indirectly, is obviously a little trickier for you to find (as it was never referred to by name !). However, if you take a look at the write up on the 10th November, you will get a clue…

Newbury 2:45

Buffalo Bob is horse I know very well – and I’m happy to trust him with my biggest bet so far…
He really is a truly admirable horse, who goes from the front and jumps for fun.
He is also pretty talented, as he should when winning this race last year, from a mark just 1 pound lower than he races off tomorrow.
Following that win, Buffalo Bob was raised to a mark of 134 – and simply, that mark was just beyond him
He ran decent races on his next 2 outings, against much better opposition – but he came up a bit short each time.
His final 2 outings of last season were a little disappointing but I think he had probably had enough for the campaign…
First time out this season on 9th November (clue !) he ran a really promising race at Bangor where he was one of 3 horses I noted in the race (big clue !!).
In truth, he was the one I probably liked most from that race, as he ran as if he would improve for it – but finished in a position where he was likely to be dropped a few pounds…
Roll on a fortnight and the handicapper has indeed played ball by dropping him a generous looking 4lbs. Kim Bailey has also enlisted the services of his ‘go to’ 7lb claimer, Charles Green.
Now I’m sure that young Mr Green is not quite as competent as a professional but on a horse as genuine as Buffalo Bob, most of that 7lb will be a gift…
Therefore, it is reasonable to view it that Buffalo Bob has been dropped the best part of 10lb; should be fighting fit – and is running in the same race he won 12 months ago !
Maybe you can now see why I am so keen on his chance !
I really can’t envisage him not running well – the only concern is whether there will be something in the race that is significantly ahead of the handicapper.
Unfortunately, there a few possible candidates for this and so Buffalo Bob has to be a EW tip.
That said, I do think something will need to have the best part of 10lb in hand to beat him – here’s hoping that’s not the case !!

1.5pt EW Buffalo Bob 12/1