28th November - Selection rationale

After the heady heights of Saturday, it’s back to reality tomorrow with a couple of low key NH cards taking place at Ffos Las and Folkestone respectively,
In fairness, they are not too bad for a November Monday and I have managed to find a selection at both meetings.
Hopefully I can build on Saturday’s good work…

Ffos Las 2:20

The first thing that struck me about this race, is that there is a significant question mark against almost every runner.
For some it is their general well being (3 of the runners were pulled up last time out), whilst a couple more haven’t run for a significant period of time.
Obviously, neither of these are absolute reasons for not backing a horse – but generally, they don’t add to the case to do so !!
Fortunately, the horse that caught my eye, doesn’t fall into either of these categories…
Phardessa is a fairly useful mare – both over hurdle and fences. She made her seasonal debut at Chepstow earlier this month and travelled notably well through the race until weakening, on entering the home straight.
As it was 7 months since her previous outing, I suspect she needed the run that day. The fact connections are now switching her to the larger obstacles supports this theory (it is not uncommon for a horse to be given a pipe-opener over hurdles before going over fences).
I feel that Phardessa is fairly treated off a mark of 117; she will be well suited by the test of 3 miles on soft ground; has performed very well on her only previous visit to the Welsh course – and should now be fit enough to do herself justice.
In a race where there are doubts over just about all the other runners (and some of them, major doubts) I think she is worth a play at a best priced 14/1.
I’ve gone EW mainly because of the doubts over the other runners. Obviously this plan will be scuppered a little if there is a NR and the place terms change.
Hopefully that won’t happen – or better still, we won’t care if it does because you get paid on the place part of the bet regardless, if your horse wins ;)

1pt EW Phardessa 14/1


Folkestone 2:35

I’m taking a bit of a chance with Get Ready to Go in this race…
Not least because Neil King has 2 runners in the race and the stable jockey, Alex Merriam, is on the other one !
However, I just have a sneaky suspicion that Get ready to Go is going to run a big race tomorrow.
He ran well on his seasonal debut earlier in the month, jumping and travelling well at the head of affairs, until weakening on entering the home straight (I bit like Phardessa !). Again, if the run has brought him on, he should last for longer tomorrow…
Last season, he was a progressive novice hurdler, who finished the campaign running unplaced at Folkestone, when the 7/2 favourite for a 10 runner handicap.
Tomorrow’s race looks no more difficult that than one – and Get Ready to Go is running off a mark 4lb lower.
I also think it significant that the tongue tie which he wore last season – but which was absent on his seasonal debut – is re-applied tomorrow.
In summary, whilst he couldn’t be described as rock solid, I think Get Ready to Go is worth a small play at the best odds available

0.5pt EW Get Ready to Go 14/1


Ffos Las 2:55

I’ll be quite surprised if Azione doesn’t win this race.
I was even more surprised to see Victor Chandler install him as 3/1 favourite in their early bird market !
That really was some kind of a rick ! B365 installed him at 11/10 – which I suspect will be much closer to the mark…
I was half tempted to tweet him as 5 point bet – but it didn’t feel quite right to do so !
Hopefully one or two amongst you availed yourself of the gift that was around for a little while. I suspect an odds compiler somewhere, might have a few uncomfortable questions to answer tomorrow…!