13th November - Selection rationale

Another excellent afternoon’s racing, with the final day of the Open meeting at Cheltenham; the Southern National card at Fontwell; and a couple of very decent cards over in Ireland at Limerick and Navan respectively…

I’ve got a couple of tips for tomorrow and as both are in bigger, more competitive fields than I would like, I’ve kept stakes low.
I do like both though – and will be very disappointed if Olofi in particular doesn’t run a race – but as I was reminded earlier in the week, they are not machines.
So fingers crossed..!

Chelt 2:20

With 24 runners over the 2 mile trip, this is going to be fast and furious.
A certain amount of luck in-running will also be required, but provided Olofi gets it, I feel sure he will go close.
He actually ran fifth in the equivalent race last year, behind the top class Menorah. Furthermore, he did it as a 4 year old and off a rating 2lb higher than he gets to run off tomorrow.
The horses in front of him that day subsequently franked the form – and although he didn’t go on himself, he only ran twice more last term.
On his seasonal debut this term, he ran in a decent hurdle race in France and finished a fair 4th. Provided that run has brought him on and with an extra year on his back, Olofi has sound credentials in a very tough race.

0.5pt EW Olofi 25/1


Font 3:15

The Southern National is another very competitive race – though with just the 16 runners this time !
Le Beau Bai was the horse that caught my eye in this contest. He threatened to be a top class stayer a couple of years ago, when he went off 4/1fav for the Welsh National and finished third to Dream Alliance.
He hasn’t really progressed from that point – but he has still managed a fair level of form over the past 2 seasons, including finished third in to Silver by Nature in the last 2 runnings of the Grand National trial at Haydock.
The last one of those was in February of this year off a mark off 137. It is therefore a little surprising to see him competing off a mark of 131 just 3 runs later. As Le Beau Bai is only 8 years old may not yet have reached his peak as a stayer – certainly there is no indication that he is in decline.
Second time out looks to be the time to catch him and if that is the case, I can see him running a really big race tomorrow.

0.5pt EW Le Beau Bai 16/1