14th November - Selection rationale

I have to acknowledge that Pocket Aces is as risky a selection, as I’ve put up so far !
However, I’ve staked him accordingly – and if he runs to the level which he was capable not so long ago, he should hack up tomorrow ! 14/1 about such a scenario seems quite reasonable to me…

As a novice chaser, Pocket Aces was a fair sort: he was just 16/1 to beat Long Run in the Feltham at the Kempton Christmas meeting and although outclassed in that race, it does give an indication of the regard in which he was held, a couple of years ago…
Last season was a bit of a wash out for Pocket Aces – apart from his second run of the season, over 2 miles at Cheltenham, behind Daves Dream.
Pocket Aces finished an eye-catching fifth in that race, prompting the RP’s spotlight to write:
‘Pocket Aces was the eyecatcher as, having been badly outpaced and got well behind, he stayed on taking in the final 2f and is clearly crying out for a return to further. Rated 130 here, he looks more than capable of winning a decent prize off that mark.’

Roll on 3 disappointing runs, and Pocket Aces appears tomorrow in a Class 4 race, over a 2m4f trip, running off a mark of 111.
Compared to the Cheltenham run, he is now running in a race 2 classes lower and off a mark 19lb lower – despite the RP expert thinking he was quite capable of winning off the higher mark !
As you can see, Pocket Aces is potentially dangerously well handicapped !

However, the question mark with him is whether he is still the horse he was – and we won’t know that until around 2:40 tomorrow…
If he has had physical problems, then first time out is quite possibly the best time to catch him. He’s performed well after a break in the past, so if connections want to get him ripe for tomorrow, it should be possible.
He’s also run well on his 2 previous visits to Plumpton. Let’s hope he makes it a hatrick of decent runs tomorrow !!

0.5pt win Pocket Aces 14/1