Dealing with 'Bad Luck'

This blog moves so fast, I don’t know how many of you will have seen it – but Roy left a comment yesterday, following the narrow defeat of Wise Hawk, suggesting that my ‘luck’ has got to change for the better in the non to distant future…

In my reply, I said that I would create post, explaining the method I used to cope with the mental impacts of ‘bad luck’. Rightly or wrongly (and it something that is difficult to be dogmatic about – we all remember the times we suffered bad luck, better than the times we got lucky !) I feel, I’ve never had much luck as a bettor.
Ultimately however, you either have to deal with your luck – or stop playing the game !!
Luck doesn’t go in cycles (even though it might feel like it); luck is completely random. The fact that you’ve had 30 years of bad luck doesn’t mean you’ll then get 30 years good luck. In fact, you are just as likely to have another 30 years bad luck.!

Talking of which, I recall, 30 years ago (!) backing a 100-1 winner in a betting shop on the outskirts of Manchester. There were literally about half a dozen 100-1 winners a year at that time (the exchanges weren’t around, forcing bookmakers to price up realistically) so a 100-1 winner was a very rare occurrence !
I went back to collect my winnings a few hours later, only to find out that the horse had been disqualified and placed second !!
I was gutted – even though I had backed it EW. Connections subsequently appealed against the disqualification – and I remember thinking how ironic it would be if it were re-instead. I would have backed a 100-1 winner; the history books would show it was 100-1 winner – and I would have been paid on it finishing runner-up !
However, to my relief (I’m almost ashamed to admit !) the Jockey Club decided that the interference was more severe than the local stewards had deemed and the horse was placed last !!

About 10 years ago, I went through a spell of really bad luck. I remember it came to a head with the Racing Post chase at Kempton (in February).
I had backed a horse (I think, trained by Nicky Henderson) and it came to win the race at the second last, only to decide to take the fence with it, rather than jump over it !
As I say, it was the last in a long string of near misses, but it was the one that forced me to change my methods to better handle my ‘bad luck’…

At the time, I remember looking on Betfair and seeing that the horse had traded around 1.8 in-running.
I had backed it at about 20/1 (win only) and had consequently got nothing for a really good pick.
From that day on, I have always put a low lay on Betfair to ensure that if my horse runs close to expectation – but doesn’t get the luck – I get a reasonable reward…

It happened yesterday with Wise Hawk: I had £5 win on at 25/1, meaning a profit of £125 if it won (I’m not a big bettor !).
However, I then put an in-running lay in Betfair, ensure that I won at least £40 if the horse traded odds on in-running (which it did).
Admittedly, I would have only won £80 if it had hung on – but that is a price I’m prepared to pay to smooth out my P&L – and keep myself sane.

I can’t emphasise how important that second point is. It must be bad enough keeping your head if you are just backing horses which keep getting pipped – but when you are trying to pick them out, such a run of form, can knock you off the rails – and it’s imperative that doesn’t happen to me.

Of course, from a tipping perspective, I can’t tip to win - with a lay on BF at even money: I have to tip EW. But that is fair enough, it has a similar (if less efficient) effect. In truth, I’m not generally interested in the other places – it is just the insurance of finishing second that I want. I think Paddy Power may offer something like that – though I’ve not checked it out properly…

So there you have it: how I keep sane through these periods: and how I’m trying to keep the tipping P&L ticking along when luck goes against me…

Obviously, it is not the most efficient way of betting – and I would like to believe that things would even themselves out over time. But for me at least, that time is a long time coming and I really think I would have lost the plot by now without my ‘insurance’ policy…